NEW INFO 5 Results from share redemption are posted. Less than .2% redeemed. Very bullish as investors are showing extreme confidence in the future of PLBY.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/playboy-mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-120000721.html
NEW INFO 4 Definitive Agreement to purchase 100% of Lovers brand stores announced 2/1.
https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Playboy+%28MCAC%29+Confirms+Deal+to+Acquire+Lovers/17892359.html
NEW INFO 3 I bought more on the dip today. 5081 total. Price rose AH to $12.38 (2.15%)
NEW INFO 2 Here is the full webinar.
https://icrinc.zoom.us/rec/play/9GWKdmOYumjWfZuufW3QXpe_FW_g--qeNbg6PnTjTMbnNTgLmCbWjeRFpQga1iPc-elpGap8dnDv8Zww.yD7DjUwuPmapeEdP?continueMode=true&tk=lEYc4F_FkKlgsmCIs6w0gtGHT2kbgVGbUju3cIRBSjk.DQIAAAAV8NK49xZWdldRM2xNSFNQcTBmcE00UzM3bXh3AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA&uuid=WN_GKWqbHkeSyuWetJmLFkj4g&_x_zm_rtaid=kR45-uuqRE-L65AxLjpbQw.1611967079119.2c054e3d3f8d8e63339273d9175939ed&_x_zm_rhtaid=866
NEW INFO 1 Live merger webinar with PLBY and MCAC on Friday January 29, 2021 at 12:00 NOON EST link below
https://mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/press-release-details/2021/Playboy-Enterprises-Inc.-and-Mountain-Crest-Acquisition-Corp-Participate-in-SPACInsider-ICR-Webinar-on-January-29th-at-12pm-ET/default.aspx
Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis
!!!WARNING READING AHEAD!!! TL;DR at the end. It will take some time to sort through all the links and read/watch everything, but you should.
In the next couple weeks, Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp is taking Playboy public. The existing ticker MCAC will become PLBY. Special purpose acquisition companies have taken private companies public in recent months with great success. I believe this will be no exception. Notably, Playboy is profitable and has skyrocketing revenue going into a transformational growth phase.
Porn - First and foremost, let's talk about porn. I know what you guys are thinking. “Porno mags are dead. Why would I want to invest in something like that? I can get porn for free online.” Guess what? You are absolutely right. And that’s exactly why Playboy doesn’t do that anymore. That’s right, they eliminated their print division. And yet they somehow STILL make money from porn that people (see: boomers) pay for on their website through PlayboyTV, Playboy Plus, and iPlayboy. Here’s the thing: Playboy has international, multi-generational name recognition from porn. They have content available in 180 countries. It will be the only publicly traded adult entertainment (porn) company. But that is not where this company is going. It will help support them along the way. You can see every Playboy magazine through iPlayboy if you’re interested. NSFW links below:
https://www.playboy.com/
https://www.playboytv.com/
https://www.playboyplus.com/
https://www.iplayboy.com/
Gambling - Some of you might recognize the Playboy brand from gambling trips to places like Las Vegas, Atlantic City, Cancun, London or Macau. They’ve been in the gambling biz for decades through their casinos, clubs, and licensed gaming products. They see the writing on the wall. COVID is accelerating the transition to digital, application based GAMBLING. That’s right. What we are doing on Robinhood with risky options is gambling, and the only reason regulators might give a shit anymore is because we are making too much money. There may be some restrictions put in place, but gambling from your phone on your couch is not going anywhere. More and more states are allowing things like Draftkings, poker, state ‘lottery” apps, hell - even political betting. Michigan and Virginia just ok’d gambling apps. They won’t be the last. This is all from your couch and any 18 year old with a cracked iphone can access it. Wouldn’t it be cool if Playboy was going to do something like that? They’re already working on it. As per CEO Ben Kohn who we will get to later, “...the company’s casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth.” Honestly, I stopped researching Scientific Games' sports betting segment when I saw the word ‘omni-channel’. That told me all I needed to know about it’s success.
“Our SG Sports™ platform is an enhanced, omni-channel solution for online, self-service and retail fixed odds sports betting – from soccer to tennis, basketball, football, baseball, hockey, motor sports, racing and more.”
https://www.scientificgames.com/
https://www.microgaming.co.uk/
“This latter segment has become increasingly enticing for Playboy, and it said last week that it is considering new tie-ups that could include gaming operators like PointsBet and 888Holdings.”
https://calvinayre.com/2020/10/05/business/playboys-gaming-ops-could-get-a-boost-from-spac-purchase/
As per their SEC filing:
“Significant consumer engagement and spend with Playboy-branded gaming properties around the world, including with leading partners such as Microgaming, Scientific Games, and Caesar’s Entertainment, steers our investment in digital gaming, sports betting and other digital offerings to further support our commercial strategy to expand consumer spend with minimal marginal cost, and gain consumer data to inform go-to-market plans across categories.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tMDAA1
They are expanding into more areas of gaming/gambling, working with international players in the digital gaming/gambling arena, and a Playboy sportsbook is on the horizon.
https://www.playboy.com/read/the-pleasure-of-playing-with-yourself-mobile-gaming-in-the-covid-era
Cannabis - If you’ve ever read through a Playboy magazine, you know they’ve had a positive relationship with cannabis for many years. As of September 2020, Playboy has made a major shift into the cannabis space. Too good to be true you say? Check their website. Playboy currently sells a range of CBD products. This is a good sign. Federal hemp products, which these most likely are, can be mailed across state lines and most importantly for a company like Playboy, can operate through a traditional banking institution. CBD products are usually the first step towards the cannabis space for large companies. Playboy didn’t make these products themselves meaning they are working with a processor in the cannabis industry. Another good sign for future expansion. What else do they have for sale? Pipes, grinders, ashtrays, rolling trays, joint holders. Hmm. Ok. So it looks like they want to sell some shit. They probably don’t have an active interest in cannabis right? Think again:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/09/24/playboy-gets-serious-about-cannabis-law-reform-advocacy-with-new-partnership-grants/?sh=62f044a65cea
“Taking yet another step into the cannabis space, Playboy will be announcing later on Thursday (September, 2020) that it is launching a cannabis law reform and advocacy campaign in partnership with National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML), Last Prisoner Project, Marijuana Policy Project, the Veterans Cannabis Project, and the Eaze Momentum Program.”
“According to information procured exclusively, the three-pronged campaign will focus on calling for federal legalization. The program also includes the creation of a mentorship plan, through which the Playboy Foundation will support entrepreneurs from groups that are underrepresented in the industry.” Remember that CEO Kohn from earlier? He wrote this recently:
https://medium.com/naked-open-letters-from-playboy/congress-must-pass-the-more-act-c867c35239ae
Seems like he really wants weed to be legal? Hmm wonder why? The writing's on the wall my friends. Playboy wants into the cannabis industry, they are making steps towards this end, and we have favorable conditions for legislative progress.
Don’t think branding your own cannabis line is profitable or worthwhile? Tell me why these 41 celebrity millionaires and billionaires are dummies. I’ll wait.
https://www.celebstoner.com/news/celebstoner-news/2019/07/12/top-celebrity-cannabis-brands/
Confirmation: I hear you. “This all seems pretty speculative. It would be wildly profitable if they pull this shift off. But how do we really know?” Watch this whole video:
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/playboy-ceo-telling-story-female-154907068.html
Man - this interview just gets my juices flowing. And highlights one of my favorite reasons for this play. They have so many different business avenues from which a catalyst could appear. I think paying attention, holding shares, and options on these staggered announcements over the next year is the way I am going to go about it. "There's definitely been a shift to direct-to-consumer," he (Kohn) said. "About 50 percent of our revenue today is direct-to-consumer, and that will continue to grow going forward.” “Kohn touted Playboy's portfolio of both digital and consumer products, with casino-style gaming, in particular, serving a crucial role under the company's new business model. Playboy also has its sights on the emerging cannabis market, from CBD products to marijuana products geared toward sexual health and pleasure.” "If THC does become legal in the United States, we have developed certain strains to enhance your sex life that we will launch," Kohn said. https://cheddar.com/media/playboy-goes-public-health-gaming-lifestyle-focus Oh? The CEO actually said it? Ok then. “We have developed certain strains…” They’re already working with growers on strains and genetics? Ok. There are several legal cannabis markets for those products right now, international and stateside. I expect Playboy licensed hemp and THC pre-rolls by EOY. Something like this: https://www.etsy.com/listing/842996758/10-playboy-pre-roll-tubes-limited?ga_order=most_relevant&ga_search_type=all&ga_view_type=gallery&ga_search_query=pre+roll+playboy&ref=sr_gallery-1-2&organic_search_click=1 Maintaining cannabis operations can be costly and a regulatory headache. Playboy’s licensing strategy allows them to pick successful, established partners and sidestep traditional barriers to entry. You know what I like about these new markets? They’re expanding. Worldwide. And they are going to be a bigger deal than they already are with or without Playboy. Who thinks weed and gambling are going away? Too many people like that stuff. These are easy markets. And Playboy is early enough to carve out their spot in each. Fuck it, read this too: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimosman/2020/10/20/playboy-could-be-the-king-of-spacs-here-are-three-picks/?sh=2e13dcaa3e05
Numbers: You want numbers? I got numbers. As per the company’s most recent SEC filing:
“For the year ended December 31, 2019, and the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s historical consolidated revenue was $78.1 million and $101.3 million, respectively, historical consolidated net income (loss) was $(23.6) million and $(4.8) million, respectively, and Adjusted EBITDA was $13.1 million and $21.8 million, respectively.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Licensing segment contributed $44.2 million in revenue and $31.1 million in net income.”
“In the ninth months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Direct-to-Consumer segment contributed $40.2 million in revenue and net income of $0.1 million.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Digital Subscriptions and Content segment contributed $15.4 million in revenue and net income of $7.4 million.”
They are profitable across all three of their current business segments.
“Playboy’s return to the public markets presents a transformed, streamlined and high-growth business. The Company has over $400 million in cash flows contracted through 2029, sexual wellness products available for sale online and in over 10,000 major retail stores in the US, and a growing variety of clothing and branded lifestyle and digital gaming products.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
Growth: Playboy has massive growth in China and massive growth potential in India. “In China, where Playboy has spent more than 25 years building its business, our licensees have an enormous footprint of nearly 2,500 brick and mortar stores and 1,000 ecommerce stores selling high quality, Playboy-branded men’s casual wear, shoes/footwear, sleepwear, swimwear, formal suits, leather & non-leather goods, sweaters, active wear, and accessories. We have achieved significant growth in China licensing revenues over the past several years in partnership with strong licensees and high-quality manufacturers, and we are planning for increased growth through updates to our men’s fashion lines and expansion into adjacent categories in men’s skincare and grooming, sexual wellness, and women’s fashion, a category where recent launches have been well received.” The men’s market in China is about the same size as the entire population of the United States and European Union combined. Playboy is a leading brand in this market. They are expanding into the women’s market too. Did you know CBD toothpaste is huge in China? China loves CBD products and has hemp fields that dwarf those in the US. If Playboy expands their CBD line China it will be huge. Did you know the gambling money in Macau absolutely puts Las Vegas to shame? Technically, it's illegal on the mainland, but in reality, there is a lot of gambling going on in China. https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/10/19/magic-johnson-and-uncle-buds-cbd-brand-enter-china-via-tmall-partnership/?sh=271776ca411e “In India, Playboy today has a presence through select apparel licensees and hospitality establishments. Consumer research suggests significant growth opportunities in the territory with Playboy’s brand and categories of focus.” “Playboy Enterprises has announced the expansion of its global consumer products business into India as part of a partnership with Jay Jay Iconic Brands, a leading fashion and lifestyle Company in India.” “The Indian market today is dominated by consumers under the age of 35, who represent more than 65 percent of the country’s total population and are driving India’s significant online shopping growth. The Playboy brand’s core values of playfulness and exploration resonate strongly with the expressed desires of today’s younger millennial consumers. For us, Playboy was the perfect fit.” “The Playboy international portfolio has been flourishing for more than 25 years in several South Asian markets such as China and Japan. In particular, it has strategically targeted the millennial and gen-Z audiences across categories such as apparel, footwear, home textiles, eyewear and watches.” https://www.licenseglobal.com/industry-news/playboy-expands-global-footprint-india It looks like they gave COVID the heisman in terms of net damage sustained: “Although Playboy has not suffered any material adverse consequences to date from the COVID-19 pandemic, the business has been impacted both negatively and positively. The remote working and stay-at-home orders resulted in the closure of the London Playboy Club and retail stores of Playboy’s licensees, decreasing licensing revenues in the second quarter, as well as causing supply chain disruption and less efficient product development thereby slowing the launch of new products. However, these negative impacts were offset by an increase in Yandy’s direct-to-consumer sales, which have benefited in part from overall increases in online retail sales so far during the pandemic.” Looks like the positives are long term (Yandy acquisition) and the negatives are temporary (stay-at-home orders).
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921006093/tm213766-1_defa14a.htm
This speaks to their ability to maintain a financially solvent company throughout the transition phase to the aforementioned areas. They’d say some fancy shit like “expanded business model to encompass four key revenue streams: Sexual Wellness, Style & Apparel, Gaming & Lifestyle, and Beauty & Grooming.” I hear “we’re just biding our time with these trinkets until those dollar dollar bill y’all markets are fully up and running.” But the truth is these existing revenue streams are profitable, scalable, and rapidly expanding Playboy’s e-commerce segment around the world.
"Even in the face of COVID this year, we've been able to grow EBITDA over 100 percent and revenue over 68 percent, and I expect that to accelerate going into 2021," he said. “Playboy is accelerating its growth in company-owned and branded consumer products in attractive and expanding markets in which it has a proven history of brand affinity and consumer spend.”
Also in the SEC filing, the Time Frame:
“As we detailed in the definitive proxy statement, the SPAC stockholder meeting to vote on the transaction has been set for February 9th, and, subject to stockholder approval and satisfaction of the other closing conditions, we expect to complete the merger and begin trading on NASDAQ under ticker PLBY shortly thereafter,” concluded Kohn.
The Players: Suhail “The Whale” Rizvi (HMFIC), Ben “The Bridge” Kohn (CEO), “lil” Suying Liu & “Big” Dong Liu (Young-gun China gang). I encourage you to look these folks up. The real OG here is Suhail Rizvi. He’s from India originally and Chairman of the Board for the new PLBY company. He was an early investor in Twitter, Square, Facebook and others. His firm, Rizvi Traverse, currently invests in Instacart, Pinterest, Snapchat, Playboy, and SpaceX. Maybe you’ve heard of them. “Rizvi, who owns a sprawling three-home compound in Greenwich, Connecticut, and a 1.65-acre estate in Palm Beach, Florida, near Bill Gates and Michael Bloomberg, moved to Iowa Falls when he was five. His father was a professor of psychology at Iowa. Along with his older brother Ashraf, a hedge fund manager, Rizvi graduated from Wharton business school.” “Suhail Rizvi: the 47-year-old 'unsocial' social media baron: When Twitter goes public in the coming weeks (2013), one of the biggest winners will be a 47-year-old financier who guards his secrecy so zealously that he employs a person to take down his Wikipedia entry and scrub his photos from the internet. In IPO, Twitter seeks to be 'anti-FB'” “Prince Alwaleed bin Talal of Saudi Arabia looks like a big Twitter winner. So do the moneyed clients of Jamie Dimon. But as you’ve-got-to-be-joking wealth washed over Twitter on Thursday — a company that didn’t exist eight years ago was worth $31.7 billion after its first day on the stock market — the non-boldface name of the moment is Suhail R. Rizvi. Mr. Rizvi, 47, runs a private investment company that is the largest outside investor in Twitter with a 15.6 percent stake worth $3.8 billion at the end of trading on Thursday (November, 2013). Using a web of connections in the tech industry and in finance, as well as a hearty dose of good timing, he brought many prominent names in at the ground floor, including the Saudi prince and some of JPMorgan’s wealthiest clients.” https://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/08/technology/at-twitter-working-behind-the-scenes-toward-a-billion-dollar-payday.html Y’all like that Arab money? How about a dude that can call up Saudi Princes and convince them to spend? Funniest shit about I read about him: “Rizvi was able to buy only $100 million in Facebook shortly before its IPO, thus limiting his returns, according to people with knowledge of the matter.” Poor guy :(
He should be fine with the 16 million PLBY shares he's going to have though :)
Shuhail also has experience in the entertainment industry. He’s invested in companies like SESAC, ICM, and Summit Entertainment. He’s got Hollywood connections to blast this stuff post-merger. And he’s at least partially responsible for that whole Twilight thing. I’m team Edward btw.
I really like what Suhail has done so far. He’s lurked in the shadows while Kohn is consolidating the company, trimming the fat, making Playboy profitable, and aiming the ship at modern growing markets.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-twitter-ipo-rizvi-insight/insight-little-known-hollywood-investor-poised-to-score-with-twitter-ipo-idUSBRE9920VW20131003
Ben “The Bridge” Kohn is an interesting guy. He’s the connection between Rizvi Traverse and Playboy. He’s both CEO of Playboy and was previously Managing Partner at Rizvi Traverse. Ben seems to be the voice of the Playboy-Rizvi partnership, which makes sense with Suhail’s privacy concerns. Kohn said this:
“Today is a very big day for all of us at Playboy and for all our partners globally. I stepped into the CEO role at Playboy in 2017 because I saw the biggest opportunity of my career. Playboy is a brand and platform that could not be replicated today. It has massive global reach, with more than $3B of global consumer spend and products sold in over 180 countries. Our mission – to create a culture where all people can pursue pleasure – is rooted in our 67-year history and creates a clear focus for our business and role we play in people’s lives, providing them with the products, services and experiences that create a lifestyle of pleasure. We are taking this step into the public markets because the committed capital will enable us to accelerate our product development and go-to-market strategies and to more rapidly build our direct to consumer capabilities,” said Ben Kohn, CEO of Playboy.
“Playboy today is a highly profitable commerce business with a total addressable market projected in the trillions of dollars,” Mr. Kohn continued, “We are actively selling into the Sexual Wellness consumer category, projected to be approximately $400 billion in size by 2024, where our recently launched intimacy products have rolled out to more than 10,000 stores at major US retailers in the United States. Combined with our owned & operated ecommerce Sexual Wellness initiatives, the category will contribute more than 40% of our revenue this year. In our Apparel and Beauty categories, our collaborations with high-end fashion brands including Missguided and PacSun are projected to achieve over $50M in retail sales across the US and UK this year, our leading men’s apparel lines in China expanded to nearly 2500 brick and mortar stores and almost 1000 digital stores, and our new men’s and women’s fragrance line recently launched in Europe. In Gaming, our casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth. Our product strategy is informed by years of consumer data as we actively expand from a purely licensing model into owning and operating key high-growth product lines focused on driving profitability and consumer lifetime value. We are thrilled about the future of Playboy. Our foundation has been set to drive further growth and margin, and with the committed capital from this transaction and our more than $180M in NOLs, we will take advantage of the opportunity in front of us, building to our goal of $100M of adjusted EBITDA in 2025.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
Also, according to their Form 4s, “Big” Dong Liu and “lil” Suying Liu just loaded up with shares last week. These guys are brothers and seem like the Chinese market connection. They are only 32 & 35 years old. I don’t even know what that means, but it's provocative.
https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1832415.htm
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-ii-002600994.html
Y’all like that China money?
“Mr. Liu has been the Chief Financial Officer of Dongguan Zhishang Photoelectric Technology Co., Ltd., a regional designer, manufacturer and distributor of LED lights serving commercial customers throughout Southern China since November 2016, at which time he led a syndicate of investments into the firm. Mr. Liu has since overseen the financials of Dongguan Zhishang as well as provided strategic guidance to its board of directors, advising on operational efficiency and cash flow performance. From March 2010 to October 2016, Mr. Liu was the Head of Finance at Feidiao Electrical Group Co., Ltd., a leading Chinese manufacturer of electrical outlets headquartered in Shanghai and with businesses in the greater China region as well as Europe.”
Dr. Suying Liu, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp., commented, “Playboy is a unique and compelling investment opportunity, with one of the world’s largest and most recognized brands, its proven consumer affinity and spend, and its enormous future growth potential in its four product segments and new and existing geographic regions. I am thrilled to be partnering with Ben and his exceptional team to bring his vision to fruition.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
These guys are good. They have a proven track record of success across multiple industries. Connections and money run deep with all of these guys. I don’t think they’re in the game to lose.
I was going to write a couple more paragraphs about why you should have a look at this but really the best thing you can do is read this SEC filing from a couple days ago. It explains the situation in far better detail. Specifically, look to page 137 and read through their strategy. Also, look at their ownership percentages and compensation plans including the stock options and their prices. The financials look great, revenue is up 90% Q3, and it looks like a bright future.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
I’m hesitant to attach this because his position seems short term, but I’m going to with a warning because he does hit on some good points (two are below his link) and he’s got a sizable position in this thing (500k+ on margin, I think). I don’t know this guy but he did look at the same publicly available info and make roughly the same prediction, albeit without the in depth gambling or cannabis mention. You can also search reddit for ‘MCAC’ and very few relevant results come up and none of them even come close to really looking at this thing.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1gOvAd6lebs452hFlWWbxVjQ3VMsjGBkbJeXRwDwIJfM/edit?usp=sharing
“Also, before you people start making claims that Playboy is a “boomer” company, STOP RIGHT THERE. This is not a good argument. Simply put. The only thing that matters is Playboy’s name recognition, not their archaic business model which doesn’t even exist anymore as they have completely repurposed their business.”
“Imagine not buying $MCAC at a 400M valuation lol. Streetwear department is worth 1B alone imo.”
Considering the ridiculous Chinese growth as a lifestyle brand, he’s not wrong.
Current Cultural Significance and Meme Value: A year ago I wouldn’t have included this section but the events from the last several weeks (even going back to tsla) have proven that a company’s ability to meme and/or gain social network popularity can have an effect. Tik-tok, Snapchat, Twitch, Reddit, Youtube, Facebook, Twitter. They all have Playboy stuff on them. Kids in middle and highschool know what Playboy is but will likely never see or touch one of the magazines in person. They’ll have a Playboy hoodie though. Crazy huh? A lot like GME, PLBY would hugely benefit from meme-value stock interest to drive engagement towards their new business model while also building strategic coffers. This interest may not directly and/or significantly move the stock price but can generate significant interest from larger players who will.
Bull Case: The year is 2025. Playboy is now the world leader pleasure brand. They began by offering Playboy licensed gaming products, including gambling products, direct to consumers through existing names. By 2022, demand has skyrocketed and Playboy has designed and released their own gambling platforms. In 2025, they are also a leading cannabis brand in the United States and Canada with proprietary strains and products geared towards sexual wellness. Cannabis was legalized in the US in 2023 when President Biden got glaucoma but had success with cannabis treatment. He personally pushes for cannabis legalization as he steps out of office after his first term. Playboy has also grown their brand in China and India to multi-billion per year markets. The stock goes up from 11ish to 100ish and everyone makes big gains buying somewhere along the way.
Bear Case: The United States does a complete 180 on marijuana and gambling. President Biden overdoses on marijuana in the Lincoln bedroom when his FDs go tits up and he loses a ton of money in his sports book app after the Fighting Blue Hens narrowly lose the National Championship to Bama. Playboy is unable to expand their cannabis and gambling brands but still does well with their worldwide lifestyle brand. They gain and lose some interest in China and India but the markets are too large to ignore them completely. The stock goes up from 11ish to 13ish and everyone makes 15-20% gains.
TL;DR: Successful technology/e-commerce investment firm took over Playboy to turn it into a porn, online gambling/gaming, sports book, cannabis company, worldwide lifestyle brand that promotes sexual wellness, vetern access, women-ownership, minority-ownership, and “pleasure for all”. Does a successful online team reinventing an antiquated physical copy giant sound familiar? No options yet, shares only for now. $11.38 per share at time of writing. My guess? $20 by the end of February. $50 by EOY. This is not financial advice. I am not qualified to give financial advice. I’m just sayin’ I would personally use a Playboy sports book app while smoking a Playboy strain specific joint and it would be cool if they did that. Do your own research. You’d probably want to start here:
WARNING - POTENTIALLY NSFW - SEXY MODELS AHEAD - no actual nudity though
https://s26.q4cdn.com/895475556/files/doc_presentations/Playboy-Craig-Hallum-Conference-Investor-Presentation-11_17_20-compressed.pdf
Or here:
https://www.mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/default.aspx
Jimmy Chill: “Get into any SPAC at $10 or $11 and you are going to make money.”
STL;DR: Buy MCAC. MCAC > PLBY couple weeks. Rocketship. Moon.
Position: 5000 shares. I will buy short, medium, and long-dated calls once available.

Welcome back to year twelve of the Alabama Slammers Franchise Report! Here are the links to the previous versions if you want to catch up (2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031). Go ahead and grab some popcorn, this is a long one.
We had another great season last year, followed by another disappointing playoff exit. I like where the franchise is at though. We have great fan interest/loyalty, talent at every level of the organization, and no bad contracts. We’re probably going to have to part with a few key contributors this offseason, but that’s bound to happen when you have as much talent as we do. With a few smart moves, we should push closer to a title this year.
As with the previous versions, I’ll list the moves I made, the rationale behind those moves, the season results, and the future outlook.
Here are the salaries heading into the offseason.
\Unless stated otherwise, all players were re-signed to their one-year arbitration estimate*
Departures (non-trades):
Edwin Aguirre
Aguirre spent some time in the majors last year when Romo was injured but wasn’t needed this season. He’s entering minor league free agency, and I don’t think he’s worth keeping on the 40-man, so he probably won’t be back.
Josh Berkner
Berkner got three shots in the majors and didn’t do much with his opportunities, so I decided to give someone else a chance. He spent the year in AAA.
Tim Mehler
Mehler is great defensively but just can’t cut it at the plate. He was out of options, so I let him leave as a free agent. He signed a minor league deal with the Rockies.
Move #1:
Signed Ali Sanchez to a 2/$3m extension. The second year is a team option with a $500k buyout.
This move isn’t very exciting, but don’t worry, things will heat up below.
Move #2:
Slammers Receive: Luis Godoy, $6.4m Cash
Brewers Receive: Robby Teeter, Sean Whiteman
This move kills three birds with one stone. I cashed out on Teeter while his value was still high, cleared some of the starting pitcher logjam, and added an elite power hitter. Also, the departure of Teeter allows us the ability to build a more versatile roster, which is something I’ve wanted to do for a while.
The Brewers are winning this trade from a straight value perspective, but I’m no longer in the business of trying to win trades. I’m trying to win championships. You can collect all the assets and value contracts in the world, but at the end of the day, you need top end talent to win at the highest level – and Godoy provides that. He has questionable character, but I should have enough leadership to counter his selfish ways.
Move #3:
Slammers Receive: Edgar Sanchez, Bryn Hill, Caleb Gunther, Omar Taborda, Tim Brackman
Athletics Receive: Chris West
West might have more potential than any pitcher in the league, but I felt the opportunity to acquire Sanchez was too great to pass up. He’s an elite defender, above average offensively, has durable injury proneness, and has great character. He could anchor the middle of my infield for the next ten years. West might win the next five Cy Youngs, but I’m betting against that considering his low work ethic and the general injury proneness of pitchers.
Then to make the deal even better, the Athletics threw in an assortment of high character minor leaguers. There might not be a single player in the bunch that makes the majors, but they’ll at least help provide a better environment for other guys.
Move #4:
Slammers Receive: Bob Banks, $3m Cash
Angels Receive: Fernando Tatis Jr.
Why am I getting rid of Tatis for a low-level minor leaguer with a 5% chance of making the majors? You’ll find out when you get to move number six.
The Angels signed Tatis to a 5/$237.5m extension about a week after the trade. I don’t see any way that deal ends well for them.
Move #5:
Slammers Receive: Alan McCarter
Rays Receive: Josh Epps, $1.1m Cash
At surface level, this trade doesn’t make much sense either, but I needed to clear Epps $10m arbitration estimate for next season. I think Epps is what he is at this point and I’m really not that worried about losing him. MacCarter is a good reliever and replaces Epps as the team prankster.
Move #6:
Signed free agent Willie Vega to a 7/$190m deal. The last year is a team option with a $2m buyout.
This is the driving force behind moves five and six. I fully intended to move on from Vega at the start of the offseason, but after looking at my roster at the start of free agency, I decided he was irreplaceable. He provides gold glove defense, above average offense, and hits from the left side of the plate, which makes balancing lineups much easier. I could’ve had him for much cheaper if I decided to commit last year but this is the price of my indecision.
His deal is heavily front loaded and should be movable if things don’t go well later in the contract.
Move #7 (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3):
Slammers Receive: $13.7m Cash
Slammers Lose: Joe Stadler, Randy Macke, Nesty Luna
Nothing much to see here, just your annual “prospects for cash” trades. Macke is a solid player but was rule 5 eligible and I didn’t want to waste a 40-man roster spot on him.
Move #8:
Slammers Receive: $1m Cash
Dodgers Receive: Cooper Benson, Sam Lauderdale, Kade Grundy
This is just a salary dump. I have enough depth now there’s really no point in keeping Benson and Lauderdale around. I threw in Grundy to get some extra cash.
Final Financial Situation:
We have about $27m in budget room to start the year, so should be able to finish the season in the green, but I’ll probably trade a few more prospects to get closer to completing the owner goal of finishing with a balance of $20m. I’m also boosting ticket prices from $35 to $40, so that should help as well.
Here are the salaries heading into the season.
Season Outlook:
I’m very interested to see how this season turns out. We’ve been cruising along the past 2-3 years with the same core roster but really shook things up this offseason. I think these moves put us in a better position to win now and in the future, but there’s always the concern I’m just making moves out of boredom. Here are the five things I’m most curious about heading into the season:
1.) Can Vega provide close to what he’s provided the past few years? I didn’t give him that contract in anticipation of him becoming the next Barry Bonds, I just want him to keep doing what he’s doing. If he can do that for another three years, I’ll be happy.
2.) Is MacDonald really a top of the line starting pitcher? He was the best reliever in the league last year and his trade value is sky high. Every team I traded with this offseason valued him as my second-best asset after Chris West. His overall rating is really good, but I’m concerned about his lack of stuff and questionable stamina/hold runners combo.
3.) How does the offense perform after losing our 3-4 hitters from last season? I know I replaced one of them with Godoy, but players tend to struggle when first joining a new team, and we don’t have a second premier middle of the order bat. We’ll mostly be doing an offense by committee approach.
4.) Can Hines handle a full-time starting role? With the departure of Tatis, I’m moving Bernal to third base and starting Hines at first. He’s not a traditional first baseman but he played well last year and has an efficient ratings profile. I’ll be happy if he provides league average offense.
5.) How will the Hopper/Muntner DH platoon fare? Hopper should be an elite leadoff man vs. RHP and Muntner should be solid vs. LHP. I’m hoping Hopper can play a full season if he doesn’t have to play in the field.
If things go well, we should win another 100+ games and make a strong push at a title.
Batters:
Primary Lineup vs. RHP and vs. LHP when Healthy (\DH enabled in both leagues, lineup vs. RHP listed below)*
DH – Jeff Hopper
Other than a day-to-day injury to end the year, Hopper stayed healthy the entire season and played really well. He had an OBP of .370 and provided exactly what I wanted from the leadoff spot. He should be back in the same role next year.
3B – Ernesto Bernal
I forgot to mention above, but Bernal signed a 5/$110m in the offseason. He’s an all-star, has high character, durable injury proneness, and is in the prime of his career, so it made a lot of sense to bring him back at this price. He’s been with the organization for ten years and it would be really cool to have him around for ten more.
He moved from first to third base this season and made his third all-star team.
RF – Luis Godoy
Godoy didn’t have the type of year I expected but was still really good. He was an all-star starter and put up 5.1 WAR in just 128 games. I expect him to be much better next season after having a full year to adjust to his new team.
He missed the last month of the year with a sprained thumb, but he should be fine going forward.
LF – Marcus Flakes
Flakes isn’t the second middle of the order bat I dreamed about as a kid, but he did well in the role, hitting 41 home runs and driving in 101 runs. He still has one more year on a minimum scale deal, so he’ll definitely return.
SS – Willie Vega
Willie Vega: The Fifty Million Dollar Man – That doesn’t really sound appropriate for a guy with 4.6 WAR, but I’m actually very happy with what he did. Him and Sanchez formed an unreal middle infield defensive combo, which resulted in this (major spoilers for the pitcher section).
We’re not out of the woods yet with his contract but I think we’ll be good if he performs well again next year. At the end of next season, he’ll only have 4/$87m guaranteed remaining, which should be moveable if need be.
2B – Edgar Sanchez
I didn’t realize how much Epps was holding us back defensively until Sanchez came to town. He won his third gold glove and was a huge part of the reason we had a team ERA under 3. His offense was average, but I could see that getting much better the next few seasons.
1B – Jonathan Hines
I was hoping Hines would be a league average hitter, and he fell just short of that. I’ll upgrade in the offseason if the right player is available but I’m not going to break the bank. Not every player has to be an all-star.
CF – Joey Hudson
Hudson had a great year and is really starting to establish himself as one of the better center fielders in the league. He probably deserves to bat higher in the order next season, but I might wait for his baserunning to improve just a bit more.
C – Drew Romo
It’s been a long time coming, but Romo finally won his first gold glove. He’s been the best defensive catcher in the game for a while, but I don’t play my guys enough to easily rack up awards. I’d rather have them available for the playoffs.
He’s an upcoming free agent and his offense is falling off a cliff, but I’m probably going to bring him back. If things go poorly, I’ll replace him midseason.
Bench
C – Ali Sanchez
I don’t expect much from my backup catcher, and Sanchez doesn’t provide much, so I guess everyone was happy with the way his season turned out. I think I’m going to decline his team option and go with the guy that replaced him while he was injured.
IF – Manny Monzon
Monzon keeps the middle infield defense elite while the starters rest but doesn’t do much on offense. I might give someone else a shot next year.
OF – Josh Muntner
Muntner served as the primary DH vs. LHP and backed up left and right field against RHPs. He started in 99 games and really didn’t do much with his opportunity, so I guess I was one for two with my DH platoon experiment.
Replacements
C – Danny Wells
Wells filled in for six weeks when Sanchez was injured and didn’t do much worse than the vet. I’m probably going to let him have the backup catcher role next season.
OF – Mike Startzel
Startzel played well last year but I decided to replace him with a right-handed bat. He was called up when Godoy was injured and started the last month of the year in right field.
Pitchers:
Pitching Staff when Healthy
SP – Pat Dibartolo
Dibartolo had another great year, making his third all-star team and finishing fourth in the Cy Young voting. I would love to keep him around until he retires but his ratings have started to slip slightly, and I don’t think he’ll last too long into his thirties. I’ll bring him back for his last arbitration season, then let him walk as a free agent.
SP – Gilles Palacios
Palacios has come a long way since I traded for him in 2028. He was the all-star game starter and won his first Cy Young. I’ll look to sign him long-term in the offseason.
SP – Corey MacDonald
I wasn’t sure if MacDonald was good enough to be a top-of-the-line starter, but there’s no doubt about it now – he’s one of the top pitchers in baseball. He made his second all-star game, threw two complete game shutouts, won the pitcher of the month award in June, won the gold glove award, and finished third in the Cy Young voting. With his high character and durability, he should be a good player for a long time.
SP – Josh Sheppard
Sheppard was the fourth member of our golden pitcher quartet. He made the all-star game and finished second in the Cy Young voting.
SP – Jonathan Kelsey
Kelsey was decent but I had to demote him in June to make room for my number one prospect. He was called back up when rosters expanded and we went to a six-man rotation.
RP – Chris Ryan
I mentioned a few years ago that pitchers with Ryan’s profile never seem to reach their potential and it seems like Ryan has followed suit. He’s a solid player but nowhere near as good as his 70 potential suggested a few years back.
RP – Steve Bacon
Bacon really didn’t pitch enough to properly evaluate. We’ll probably go to an eight-man bullpen next season, and if Bacon is a member of it, we can properly evaluate him then.
RP – Alan McCarter
McCarter was really good and looks like he has the potential to be even better. Hopefully, his control rounds out next season.
RP – Danny Ibarra
Ibarra finally gave up his dream of being a starter and accepted his role in the bullpen. He posted almost identical stats as last year and I hope he does the same next season.
RP – Justus Evans
I wasn’t a big fan of Evans ratings profile but decided to give him a shot since he dominated in AAA last year. He was pretty underwhelming in limited appearances, and probably deserves another look, but he’ll be changing positions next season. Somehow, I didn’t notice he has great batting ratings, especially against lefties, so he’ll be the other half of the DH platoon I’ve been looking for. It’s too bad I disabled two-way players because it’d be nice to have him available as a pitcher in emergencies.
RP – Mike Ruhs
Ruhs is nothing special but he’s cheap and healthy, so he’ll be back next year.
RP – Joe McKinney
McKinney is my favorite kind of reliever. He has all the ratings of an elite starting pitcher, minus the stamina. He dominated for the second straight season and will be back again next year.
RP – Tommy Noonan
Noonan had an FIP of 1.98 and made his first all-star team, but somehow received zero reliever of the year votes. I really don’t see how this is possible since he’s probably the most feared pitcher in all of baseball. He strikes out half the batters he faces, and 60% of those that put the ball in play are hitting it on the ground to the Vega/Sanchez death wall. The voters need to show him some more respect next year.
RP – Glen Alcorn
I took a flier on Alcorn despite his history of back injuries and he’s paid off in a big way. He had an FIP of 1.86 and won the reliever of the year award. He wants to be a starter but there’s no way he’d survive a full season with his health issues.
Replacements
SP – Andy Schaffer
Schaffer was whitewashing AA early in the year, so I had no choice but to call him up. He pitched great in his 21 starts in the majors and might’ve given me a clean top five in the Cy Young voting if he pitched a full season.
Season Results:
We continued to put a stranglehold on the division, building a 20-game lead by the halfway point, then cruising the rest of the way. We locked up first place with 22 games remaining, making that our seventh division crown in nine years.
This year wasn’t about the regular season though. We’ve had multiple disappointing early round playoff exits the last few years and I’m hoping to break through and win our second title. We doubled down on pitching and defense and made sure to keep everyone as fresh as possible during the regular season.
Our injury prevention plan went great for the most part. We had zero pitchers and only two batters spend time on the IL, and one of those batters was a 34-year-old. Unfortunately, one of the batters to miss extended time was the one guy I could least afford to lose. Luis Godoy sprained his thumb in early September and was out through the first round of the playoffs. What luck.
Startzel started at RF in place of Godoy to start the playoffs, and Hudson moved up to the number three spot in the lineup. I’m not crazy about either of these options, but it’s the best we’ve got. We went with a playoff rotation of MacDonald, Palacios, Dibartolo, and Schaffer, and moved Sheppard and Kelsey to the bullpen. Justus and Bacon were left off the playoff roster.
Our first-round matchup was against the 90-72 Rockies. Their only real player of note was Steve Delaney, but he looks like the kind of guy that can swing a series. Then their offense was balanced and deep, with most players having 55+ home run power. We have more talent, but anything can happen at Coors..
Divisional Series Game 1, Slammers Win 4-2 – We started off strong in game one, getting a combined 15 Ks over nine innings from MacDonald, Noonan, and Alcorn. Then Flakes led the way on offense with 3 RBIs. The game was tied most of the way until his go ahead single in the bottom of the eighth.
Divisional Series Game 2, Slammers Win 9-2 – The pitching staff put together another great outing in game two, with Palacios, Alcorn, and Sheppard combining for 15 Ks over nine innings. Flakes led the way on offense with another 3 RBIs.
Divisional Series Game 3, Slammers Win 5-2 – I was worried their offense would come to life at Coors but we were able to keep them at bay and win our third straight game. This time it was Dibartolo, Noonan, and McKinney combining for a dominant pitching performance, with 13 Ks over nine innings. Everyone chipped in on offense to produce five runs.
Divisional Series Game 4, Rockies Win 8-7 (12) – I knew it was bound to happen at some point and it finally did – the Rockies offense came to life. Alcorn and McKinney both blew save opportunities and Ibarra gave up a walk-off homer in the bottom of the twelfth. Flakes continued his hot series with another 4 RBIs.
Divisional Series Game 5, Rockies Win 5-1 – The Rockies continued their offensive surge, taking MacDonald deep three times in four innings. Then Delaney gave them six innings of one run ball. The Rockies have momentum but we’re heading back home with the Cy Young winner scheduled to start game six. I think we’ll be fine.
Divisional Series Game 6, Slammers Win 8-2 – Palacios gave up a two-run shot in the first, then him, Ryan, and Kelsey combined for 13 Ks and 0 ER the rest of the way. Flakes was hot again, launching two three-run homers.
I was worried our offense would stall out without Godoy, but Flakes put the team on his back, winning series MVP behind his 5 home runs and 17 RBIs. We held serve at home and stole one on the road, with our pitching dominating in each of the wins. Godoy is set to return for game one of the NLCS, so I like our odds the rest of the way.
Our next opponent is the 100-62 Nationals. They have the second-best record in baseball and a very talented team. Their offense is led by MVP Doug Bridges and future hall of famer Juan Soto, and the pitching staff features stud starters Clay McAuley and Fabricio Tertlio. This looks like the de facto title series.
NLCS Game 1, Slammers Win 7-3 – Godoy made up for lost time in game one, going 3-5 with two homers and 4 RBIs. Then the pitching was solid with great performances from the usual suspects. Dibartolo, Noonan, and Alcorn combined for 11 Ks and 3 ERs over nine innings.
NLCS Game 2, Slammers Win 3-1 – Schaffer pitched a gem, giving us seven innings and only allowing one run. Then McKinney came in and closed it down with a two inning save. Godoy hit another homer, while Romo and Hines both had run scoring singles.
NLCS Game 3, Slammers Win 3-2 (14) – Whew, what a game. MacDonald and McAuley both went 6.1 innings and gave up two runs, with the last of those coming in the bottom of the seventh. Then no one scored again until the top of the fourteenth when Sanchez hit a go-ahead solo homer. Noonan, Alcorn, McKinney, and Ibarra combined for 7.2 scoreless innings in relief and Godoy hit another two-run homer.
NLCS Game 4, Slammers Win 7-2 – This one was over early. We knocked out their starter in the first and cruised the rest of the way. Palacios and Sheppard combined for 9 innings and 2 ERs, and everyone chipped in on offense.
We made a huge statement with this series. The Nationals thought they were on the same level as us, but we eviscerated them. Godoy won series MVP with his four home runs and eight RBIs.
Up next is the 93-69 Red Sox, led by veteran starting pitcher Nate Pearson. They have a deep and balanced team, but nothing that should give us too many issues. We made a key trade with them last year that netted us Alcorn and Ibarra, while sending out Chang-Hyeok Kim. I bet they wish they could undo that one.
World Series Game 1, Slammers Win 3-2 – Game one was a pitching duel between Pearson and Dibartolo, with Dibartolo coming out on top. Dibartolo, Noonan, and Alcorn combined for 14 Ks and 2 ERs over nine innings. Hopper hit a two-run home run and Godoy continued his hot streak with another solo shot.
World Series Game 2, Slammers Win 6-2 – The pitching came through again with Schaffer, McKinney, and Ruhs combing for 10 Ks and 2 ERs in nine innings. Things are looking good after two games.
World Series Game 3, Red Sox Win 10-8 – Some people say a series doesn’t start until the road team wins a game, so maybe we’re still waiting for this one to kick off. The Red Sox roughed up our pitchers and we lost a shootout late.
World Series Game 4, Slammers Win 7-2 – The pitching got back on track in game four with Palacios and Ryan teaming up to allow 2 ERs over nine innings. Flakes had four hits and Bernal drove in three runs.
World Series Game 5, Red Sox Win 7-5 – Godoy had a huge game, going 3-3 with 2 home runs, a triple, 2 walks, 4 RBIs, and 2 runs scored, but it wasn’t enough for the victory. The Red Sox got to Dibartolo early and we could never climb back. We’re heading back home and looking to close out the series in game six.
World Series Game 6, Slammers Win 11-4 – We scored early and often and took game six in convincing fashion. Godoy provided another 3 RBIs and Schaffer did enough to win. Noonan and Kelsey closed out the last three innings.
After five long years we’re World Series champs once again! Godoy had another huge series and won World Series MVP, capping off an amazing postseason run (seriously, check this out).
This wasn’t as action packed as our 2027 title run, but I enjoyed it just as much. It was very satisfying watching our pitching and defense squeeze the life out of teams. We had a team ERA of 3.32 over 16 games, which is pretty impressive considering we were playing the best teams in the league. The starters were all excellent and the bullpen was lights out. I bet other teams got tired of seeing “Slammers SP – 6.2 IP, 2 ER; Slammers RP 1 – 1.1 IP, 0 ER, Slammers RP 2 – 1 IP 0 ER.” It was like clockwork.
Noonan, Alcorn, and McKinney were particularly impressive. Noonan had an FIP of 0.62 in seven appearances and struck out 23 of the 43 batters he faced. McKinney had an FIP of 0.95 in 9.2 innings and only allowed 6 baserunners. Then Alcorn allowed zero runs in five of his seven appearances. I don’t think I would swap these guys for any other relievers in the league.
From everything I’ve written above, it’s pretty obvious that we won this championship with pitching and defense, so I think it’s worth mentioning Vega’s contract again. $50m for 4.6 WAR is terrible value but it’s not always about that. It’s about getting the right players for your team, regardless of how valuable their contracts are. It’s really easy to get caught up in trying to win the $/WAR game, but they don’t give out championships for that – they only give out World Series titles.
Here are the rest of the playoff results and MLB standings.
Also, I usually don’t mention minor league records since I don’t think they’re overly important, but we had all of our minor league teams finish with a winning record this season. Good job everyone!
Top Prospects:
We’ve turned in to a starting pitching factory. I can’t get guys to free agency quick enough to make room for the new guys coming up. This is a good problem to have, but I wish I could do as well with developing batters. It just seems so much harder to identify top position players outside of the top ten in the draft, and I can’t develop them as well either. Either way though, the farm is in great shape and should continue to be for years to come.
1.) Eddie Copping
Copping might not have the highest upside on the list but he’s the safest bet to make the majors. He had a great year in AA, winning pitcher of the year, and his ratings are pretty much major league ready. He’ll probably start next year at AAA since I have a logjam of starting pitchers.
2.) Chris Dearborn
Dearborn has great character, durability, and ratings across the board. He had a good year in A- and will contend for Cy Young awards one day if he reaches his full potential.
3.) Alex Rivera
Rivera’s offensive potential has regressed since last year, but his defensive ratings improved. He struggled in A, so will repeat the level next year. Hopefully, I didn’t cause any permanent damage to his development by promoting him too early.
4.) Jose Gutierrez
Gutierrez had a monster year in rookie ball and saw his ratings progress nicely since last season. If his catcher ability can make it to 65-70, he’ll be my starting catcher one day.
5.) Chris Brown
Brown was my first-round selection in this year’s draft. He has below average stamina and hold runners, but all of his other potential ratings are elite. He performed well in rookie ball, but I might give him another year there to improve his control.
6.) Chris Larkin
Larkin continued his steady ascent through the system, posting a good year in A+ and seeing his ratings improve since last season. He’ll start next year in AA and should be ready for the majors sooner than later.
7.) Edwin Mireles
Mireles had a solid year in A+ but missed a lot of time to injury. He’ll start next season in AA, but I won’t hesitate to trade him if the right deal comes along.
Here are his ratings from last season.
8.) Bobby Butler
I still don’t trust Butler and his normal injury proneness, but his talent is undeniable. His ratings have improved across the board since last season and he looks ready for promotion to AA. Like Mireles, I’ll trade him if the right deal comes along.
9.) Luis Arguello
If you’ve been paying close attention, you might’ve noticed Arguello is the fourth starting pitcher in the top nine from the 2030 draft. He doesn’t have the same upside as the other guys but he’s a pretty safe bet to be a back of the rotation starter, and if his movement improves, he could be elite. He’ll start next season at A+.
10.) Josh McBride
McBride’s skills have rounded out since last year and he looks ready for the majors. I doubt he’ll ever be a star, but there’s definitely value in a guy that can competently play eight positions.
Honorable mentions:
Joe Poffenberger
Poffenberger looks like the real deal but I’m always skeptical of guys with normal injury proneness and no positive character attributes. He’ll start next season at A, and we’ll find out more about him there.
Omar Taborda
I would’ve been foaming at the mouth to get Taborda in the starting lineup a few years ago but Vega and Sanchez have the middle infield on lock for the next several seasons. He might replace Monzon as the utility infielder next year, but it probably makes more sense to trade him while his value is highest.
Steve Flores
Flores made the list two years ago due to a lack of better options, but I think he’s a legitimate prospect now. He might not ever bat his weight, but he could be one of the greatest defensive shortstops of all time. I’m hoping his high character allows his offensive skills to improve the next few years.
Ray Zaragoza
I had every intention of trading Zaragoza after his season ending injury last year but there really wasn’t much interest in him. Unfortunately, he suffered another season ending injury in his first game back this year, so I doubt there will be any more interest in him now. I think I’m going to force start him as a reliever so he has a chance to make the majors in some capacity.
Promoted to MLB:
Andy Schaffer
Dropped from list:
Josh Boston
So, a low character guy is fizzling out, guess I shouldn’t be too surprised. Here are his ratings from last year.
Future Outlook:
We’re in amazing position going forward. We just won the World Series, have the top four Cy Young award vote getters, have the ability to bring back everyone, and could probably even bring in another MVP caliber player. Then for good measure, we also have a great farm system. The rest of division is looking up in awe.
So, where do we go from here? It’s really fun racking up championships but it can get kind of boring after a while. I know I don’t have enough titles to be complaining about boredom yet, but we look like we’re trending in that direction. I’m thinking about making some league wide adjustments to shake things up. Here are the changes I’m considering this offseason:
1.) Re-align the Divisions
I loved the rivalry with the Braves when I first started the franchise, but we’ve kind of got our foot on their necks at the moment, and I don’t see them getting back up anytime soon. We’ve established such a strong position in the division it’s almost impossible for them to make the playoffs, and with every passing year their fan interest/loyalty gets worse and the gap between us and them only grows larger. The Cardinals are in a similar situation, and the Marlins might as well be a minor league team.
I’m thinking about re-aligning the divisions based on winning percentages from the last twelve years, putting the top four teams in one division, the next four teams in another, and so on. This would give teams like the Marlins a chance to make the playoffs and make it where teams like ours can’t put a long-term strangle hold on a division. I could re-align every ten years or so to make sure no one gets too strong of a position.
2.) Expand the Playoffs
This is the simplest change I could make but the one I like least. We currently have 32 teams in the league and eight of them make the playoffs, so it really feels like an accomplishment to make it and the playoff bracket sets up perfectly. If we added two wildcards to each division, we’d need to give two teams in each conference a bye, which isn’t somethings I’m crazy about doing. Then if we added four wildcards, or let the top two from each division qualify, it would really diminish the regular season. I seriously doubt I go this route.
3.) Eliminate Divisions
This is an appealing option, but I’ve had issues with it in the past. Basically, it becomes too easy to make the playoffs because you don’t have to worry about a juggernaut appearing in your division. If there’s a 110-win team in the league, who cares, you’ll still make the playoffs with 100 wins, so you can really let off the gas during the regular season. I might give it another try though.
4.) Expand the League
This is mostly a temporary solution, but it could make things more difficult in the short term. I have way too many players to protect in an expansion draft, so would definitely lose some depth. I might do this along with re-alignment, but it’s not a permanent balancing solution.
5.) Add Promotion and Relegation
I think this is the best route to giving everyone a chance at winning but it would require some pretty radical changes to the league. Here are some of the things I would have to figure out: Who starts out in the lower league? Do I introduce expansion teams at the same time? How many teams make the playoffs? How many teams are promoted/relegated each year? How do I do the financials? Then there are probably another thirty things I haven’t thought of yet. This is probably what I should do, but I don’t know if I’m ready to make that leap yet.
Here is the budget and salaries heading into the offseason.

The below is a weekly piece we put out for our members - Core Plays but we are offering most of our content free this weekend for anyone that is interested in our approach. Content will be made available to anyone who signs up for a free account at dailyboogie.com. However, please check out the preview below and let us know who you're targeting in your contests this week.

NFL Core Plays: Week 8

Table of Contents

Fades will be listed as players in which we'll either be far lower than the field on or just completely off of in anything other than team stacks.
YPT = Yards Per Target
ROO = Range of Outcomes
YPRR = Yards Per Route Run
aDOT = Average Depth of Target
YAC = Yards After Catch
DVOA = Defense-Adjusted Value over Average
TT= Team Total
POWN= Projected Ownership
aFPA= Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed
EPA= Expected Points Added
RACR= Receiver Air Conversion Ratio
WOPR= Weighted Opportunity Rating
For those of you playing Single-Entry, 3 Max, 5 Max, or 20 Max: the players listed in the first two tiers are the ones to focus on the most. Ideally, you would sprinkle in some of the players listed in the 3rd Tie Dart Throw range to help diversify your player pool.
Please adjust accordingly depending on the type of contest you're entering. While we may advise you to stay clear of the obvious, more popular plays in large-field GPPs, feel free to mix and match those type of plays in smaller-field GPPs and Cash Games.

QB Core

Primary Tier

R.Wilson: I don't care if SF has a good defense. None. Especially if Carson and/or Hyde miss this game, SEA will be forced to be even more pass friendly. Also, I actually like SF's chances to score some points on this horrific SEA Pass D. To ease any concern, Russ is currently avg. 10 yards per attempt at a nearly 80% clip vs. Zone. Guess who runs Zone D at a Top 5 rate? The Niners.

Secondary Tier

R.Tannehill: With his price increasing every week (DK), we will likely see POWN held in check. This game will likely determine how my week goes as I plan to be all over it in the majority of my lineups. I've said this over and over again, but I'm just so impressed with TEN's willingness to push tempo. With a fast pace, and incredibly efficient performances every week, Tannehill will continue to be featured in Core Plays.
J.Burrow: His price oddly didn't really spike on any site, and that's fine by me. The #1 leader in drop backs in the NFL will be in a matchup where both sides like to push the pace. Mixon looks like he's going to miss another week, making the CIN Passing Game all the more obvious of a play. If we throw out the BAL game, Burrow has literally never scored less than 17 DK points, even in matchups that were a lot less favorable game environments.
P.Mahomes: Mahomes has provided enough data to see that he does put up top tier points in these surefire blowouts. KC will score 4 TDs before the end of the 3rd Quarter (if not sooner). We just need to hope we don't see those fluke Special Teams and Defensive TDs like last week which ended up being Mahomes worst fantasy output EVER. Not exaggerating, it was his lowest output in pass attempts, rushing yards, yards passing, with only 1 TD.

Third Tier

L.Jackson: I dont think Jackson is going to be viewed as anything more than a "ah maybe I'll throw him in a lineup at the end". Half a season removed from one of the greatest fantasy seasons we've ever seen, the regression bug has caught up to Jackson. Even then, the guy went from #1 Points per drop back to a mere 3rd best. People are acting as if he's fallen out of the top 10. Tough matchup? Sure. But go ahead and take a look at what games have led to Jackson's greatest outputs this year? CLE, WSH, and PHI. All have some of the better D-Line's in the league and they couldn't do anything to stop him. Another bonus here, the fact that this matchup should be competitive in the majority of ROOs. An elite talent being priced down to the 4th highest priced at the position, all while still leading a team that has a healthy 25+ implied point total.
J.Garoppolo: Any QB facing SEA has to be mentioned. Jimmy isn't your typical every week DFS plug and play but he does fit the mold of an ideal GPP play. He checks off all the boxes we want for DFS QBs in 2020: Cheap, BOOM matchup, prone to spike weeks that include ceiling games, and oh.. he might be low owned as well.
A.Rodgers: I usually don't like chasing ceiling performances but there's no way I'm going to avoid ARod here. Even so, there are some troubling angles this game could see. The good: GB ranks 2nd in the NFL when it comes to scoring per-snap. They also rank in the top half in neutral-situation passing rate. The bad: Both offenses are in the bottom when it comes to pace and plays run. GB averages just 63.8 plays per game (20th) and even worse, MIN averages 59.3 (30th). When games are within one score, both teams rank near the bottom in pace (GB 27th, MIN 28th).

GPP Lower Owned Plays / Dart Throws

J.Allen: I initially had Allen in our 2nd Tier, but decided to move him to this group on account of his low POWN%. While this game doesn't have a juicy total and the Pats D ranks near the top in several categories, this is still a QB that has shown tremendous upside in just about every type of matchup. If you've been with us since Week 1, you know where I stand on Allen. Go over the field.
Thursday Update: Similar to Cam below, I had higher hopes for this particular game before finding out the injuries and weather attached. Projections will be lowered on both offenses as well as OWN%.
C.Newton: One. More. Try. Cam was great to us when the season began, but has been a shell of himself since his return from COVID. Usually a game with a total of 45 implied points is a big red flag. There is plenty of downside going with Cam Stacks in NEP vs. BUF, but there's also about a 30% shot this play can be one of the better upside + leverage moves of the week. BUF D has been bad, no way around it. Bills rank towards the back of both phases of defense (DVOA), 28th vs. pass, 24th vs. rush, 29th Overall. When looking at their PFF grades, BUF ranks 28th vs. the Run and jump up to 11th in Pass-Coverage. Clearly, NEP will likely attempt to run it as much as possible. That is where I'm hoping we'll see Cam go back to his near 12 rushes per game average Pre-Covid as opposed to his 7.5 clip these last two weeks.
Thursday Update: I had written the above prior to knowing Edelman is out, and his WR group will be D.Byrd, J.Meyers, and Gunner O. Also that the game appears projected to be played during a monsoon. So I will go ahead and take the aqua color away, I will lower my OWN% to very low levels, but I will NOT be fading him! Yolo.
K.Cousins: While I don't usually look at past matchups data as a part of my weekly assessment of a player, Cousins has played fairly well vs. GB, like always. Just as his favorite weapon, Adam Thielen, has consistently found a way to get the better of GB's secondary. Still, as mentioned above, the game could have a concerning pace issue. The return of D.Cook will likely cause the Vikings to favor the run. Cousins will be a way to pivot in large-field GPPs.

In Between Tier (In play but I'm likely to be under / not excited about)

J.Herbert: His DK price is nearly unplayable since it's based on him reaching near his ceiling game, but it's much friendlier on FD.
Thursday Update: With all the possible weather issues, Herbert has become a very interesting, very low-owned (At least on DK) large field tournament / Q option.
D.Carr: Before seeing that he's likely going to be one of the more popular options, I had Carr near the top of my GPP tier. If he's anywhere 8%+ owned I will take my chances coming in lower. That being said, this is a really good spot.
B.Mayfield: Down his WR1, he was still able to have one of his better games last week. He's staying in my player pool as a way to pivot off the Hunt chalk.
B.Roethslisberger: I actually think I may be over the POWN here, but I'm not going crazy either. PIT will likely find out it's a lot easier to throw on BAL then just running it up the middle. His weapons are quite dope.

QB Fades

These are QBs we're looking to mostly avoid, especially as solo plays. (Either because of high ownership and/or a poor outlook.)
D.Brees: "If no M.Thomas, I will be suppressing my Brees ownership severely", is what I said last week. Now, same plan, going against a decent CHI D in what is likely to be a slow paced affair.
M.Stafford: We haven't seen a true week changing ceiling and the matchup could slow down their pace this week.
P.Rivers
D.Lock

Ideal Stack Pairings

There's a lot of leverage to gain when including a second pass-catcher with our QB choice AND bringing it back with a player from the opposing team. Unlike the majority of sites, we don't advise to strictly game stack 4+ players in matchups with high implied totals. Instead, we look to target offenses where the targets are heavily concentrated.
P.Mahomes-> T.Kelce and T.Hill / D.Robinson
R.Wilson-> T.Lockett and/or D.Metcalf
J.Burrow-> T.Boyd and T.Higgins / A.Green
R.Tannehill-> A.Brown and/or J.Smith / C.Davis
A.Rodgers-> D.Adams and/or R.Tonyan / A.Jones
J.Allen-> S.Diggs or C.Beasley
K.Cousins-> A.Thielen or J.Jefferson
J.Garoppolo-> G.Kittle and/or Aiyuk
J.Herbert-> K.Allen and/or M.Williams / H.Henry
B.Mayfield-> R.Higgins and/or K.Hunt
T.Bridgewater-> R.Anderson and/or D.Moore
C.Newton-> J.Edelman or N.Harry
B.Roethlisberger-> D.Johnson and/or C.Claypool / J.Smith-Schuster
T.Bridgewater-> D.Moore or R.Anderson / M.Davis
M.Stafford-> K.Golladay or T.Hockenson
Tua -> D.Parker or M.Gesicki

RB Core

Primary Tier

D.Cook: It's the return of the GAWD. Cook is slated to return this week after the world finally realized that Mattison is not his equal, nor in the same tier. He's been fed the ball often and MIN knows he needs to be a big part of their plan if they want to keep up with Rodgers and Co. As a bonus, he's cheaper and likely to be lesser owned than some of the other Top RBs.
K.Hunt: His advanced metrics are actually showing several areas of decline but my god the current situation couldn't have even been dreamed of when the season began. Chubb and ODB are now gone, he's in position to see an endless amount of touches and is in a GREAT matchup. Oh, he's game-script proof regardless.
A.Kamara: He's likely the most talented player on every field he steps on and if the Saints ever decide to give him those 25+ touches, they may like what they see. I don't understand why they aren't giving him 30 touches let alone 25. This game also leaves Kamara's ceiling somewhat suppressed. While I won't be "Fading" Kamara, it's looking like a rare week I'll be coming in under / matching the field. (Scroll below to Updates to read NOS vs. CHI Game Environment Issues).
Update: I went through the numbers, he's currently averages about 20 opportunities per game (even without M.Thomas). Come on Saints, the hell. Unleash him.

Secondary Tier

D.Henry: The BIG DAWG is fun to own on those slates where he steps on all the defensive backs heads on his way to a 95 Yard TD score. How does somebody that big run that fast? He pulls away from CBs and Safeties that are attempting to chase him down. Anyways, we're looking at what will likely be my favorite game stack of the week. TEN vs. CIN is just so perfect for GPPs. I've said it over and over again, Pace and Volume are vital categories that I will always try to be overexposed to on a weekly basis. TEN and CIN feature the only game that BOTH teams are in the top 8 in Pace. Faster Tempo = More Plays. More Plays = More Volume. More Volume = Fantasy Gold. While this was supposed to be a D.Henry breakdown, I turned it into why I'm going to be all over this game. The CIN and TEN Pace is no fluke either. Henry has the most touches in the league while Burrow has the most drop backs in the entire NFL. Man, I'm excited.
A.Jones: His talent and projected workload belongs in the top tier, especially given its a plus matchup and he's pretty much game script proof. However, this is one of the more key areas I'm waiting to get a definitive feel for how the field will be playing it. If we see D.Adams chalk I'll go heavier on the RB side. If we see people flood to the GB Run side, I'll go even heavier on the passing attack. Regardless, I want all the GB vs. MIN I can get and will be making sure any popular combination will be attached to a contrarian piece I find elsewhere.
G.Bernard/J.Williams: Both will quickly make their way up the tiers if they get the lead role again. Both are in plus matchups, but I would like to see where POWN would be coming in at. Most likely, they will be decent pivots off their team's more popular options. Since they both have pass game roles, they can be stacked nicely with their QB as well.

GPP Lower Owned Plays / Dart Throws

J.Jacobs: He's been quiet as of late, but he's still one of the best volume situated backs in the league. One odd category that most people wouldn't even suspect is his solid number (24% heading into Week 7) of RBs who are targeted at the highest per-route rate. Believe it or not, theres only a handful of players with a higher number. On top of that, he's rushed 20+ times in half his games, caught multiple passes in EVERY game, and has seen no less than 3 targets in ANY game. I'm really intrigued to see where POWN is going to come in at. Regardless, I'm aiming to be a decent amount higher.
J.Taylor: I know, I know. Grandpa Taylor and his 15 carries for 78 yards with hopefully a fall into the end zone. It's been rather brutal ever since his coming out party Week 2. Still, I have to mention the enticing matchup vs. DET's 28th ranked DVOA vs. RBs, the relatively high game total of 50+, and the large O-Line advantage he will have vs. DET's D-Line. So there you go, I have said what I have to say, now you know it. And now, we try to talk ourselves into one way or the other.
M.Gordon: So far this has been an odd tempting spot for me to go way over the field on. Besides the "revenge game" narrative, Lindsay is likely to miss this week, giving Gordon all the run he can handle. Because he's capable of catching the ball and running between the tackles, his reasonable price and the likelihood of being 5% or less owned makes him quite the bring back piece to any K.Allen lineup. While DEN vs. LAC isn't likely to go nuclear, it can very easily feature two players who can tilt some contests. Perfect case of POWN vs. What his upside/outlook suggests he should be owned.
CEH: Honestly would be straight up fading him if you told me he was going to be 18%+ POWN. I'm assuming he won't so therefore, he falls in a weird space this week. There's no reason why he cant see 21 touches and find the end zone multiple times here, and yet, he seems to find a way to disappoint. I also will be projecting him lower than what you may be accustomed to. That is because I'm 100% sure that they will be giving 1 TD to L.Bell.
M.Gaskin: In general, this MIA vs. LAR game finds itself in no man's land this week. Simply because of the lack of attention this game will be getting, leaves my contrarian obsessed mind to try to find the hidden treasures. LAR are weaker vs. the run than the pass, and with a rookie QB, I would have to assume MIA might try to keep the ball on the ground more. It's also nice to have a few bring back options in any game stack such as C.Kupp or R.Woods. Hell, even G.Everett and J.Reynolds can be other next to no ownership pieces.

Lower-Ceiling / Volume and/or TD Plays

I wanted to separate the RB group a bit more this week. While these players can be played on all sites, they are likely better suited to TD oriented scoring formats (FanDuel).
J.Conner: My ownership levels are low enough where he can be considered a "Fade" but he also makes enough sense as a contrarian TD dependent play.
J.McKinnon/J.Hasty: I would favor McKinnon because of his pass game usage in a game where they'll likely be trying to keep up vs. a defense that's a lot better vs. the run than the pass.
Starting SEA RB: While facing an elite Run D will usually be something I fade, whoever SEA plays this Sunday presents us a way to pivot in large fields or Qs with the off chance SEA decides to revert back to their 2013-2019 ways. A weak hedge on my part that will be a very small part of my FD plan.
D.Henderson / M.Brown: Annoying committee but the matchup is near as ideal as it can get.
J.Jackson/J.Kelley: Ideally LAC would like to pass it on DEN but sure, there could also be chances for red zone carries here.
D.Harris: Since there's a 50% chance NE just runs it 40 times here.
L.Murray: I wouldn't be opposed to going heavier on Kamara on DK while bumping up Murray's ownership on FD. A great hedge against the Saints burning us with random TD variance. Again.
L.Bell: Likely will be gift wrapped a TD against his former team.

RB Fades

D.Montgomery: Workload and backfield is all his and it doesn't seem to matter. His inefficient ways are no longer a habit, but a way of life.
BAL RBs: You don't find success by running vs. PIT.
J.White/R.Burkhead
D.Singletary
Any DET RB not named Swift

Standout RB Notes

Unlike the more volatile positions, it's generally fine to play the chalkier options at the Running Back position. Their guaranteed workload & touches are extremely difficult to replicate otherwise. That being said, remember to adjust based on the type of contest and field size.
Talking shop with Nick today, he brought up the "Don't play 2 RBs from the same game" rule. While that might be so for the majority of games, it's not a rule that applies for every single matchup. For example, this week I see two particular games that I wouldn't mind having both RBs in the same lineup.
J.Jacobs and K.Hunt
D.Cook and A.Jones/J.Williams
If a game includes at least 1 RB who has a decent role in the team's passing game, it opens up the possibility of 2 RBs going off no matter the game-script.
The Cook and GB RB pairing might be the more obvious but you still be surprised how rarely people play two backs in the same game. The one that I think will be very rare is Jacobs and Hunt. Mind you, before I even checked the horrific passing weather that will plague this matchup, I was all about going in on both backs, even in the same lineup. For the most part, just about every type of DFS player knows K.Hunt is well known for his pass catching abilities, but I think 95% of players would be shocked to see Jacobs' low-key pass role. Mentioned up top, but it's worth saying again: he's rushed 20+ times in half his games, caught multiple passes in EVERY game, and has seen no less than 3 targets in ANY game.

WR Core

Primary Tier

D.Metcalf/T.Lockett: If I'm playing Wilson then obviously these two have to be included. Not the "best" matchup but on the chance this game ends up shooting out more than what people are expecting, the ceiling is as high as ANY.
K.Allen: Just a BEAST. Week in and week out, volume of the gods. I actually just became friends with the LAC WRs/Offensive Coordinator Coach so I got some insight into how they prepare for their weekly matchups. Regardless of opponent, Allen is producing at his all time best levels right now. Price doesn't seem to go up which is annoying and will make his POWN higher than it would otherwise. Lock of a Cash Play, and I will be looking to find some unique ways to feature him in my higher-dollar lineups.
D.Adams: Usually when you already own a ridiculous portion of your team's opportunity share it's hard to find another level, but that's what Adams just did when the Packers lost A.Jones. Even though Tonyan and MVS can have a few spike weeks here and there, there is no greater target density that has this kind of ceiling. Price is as high as its been all year leaving a lot of room for "disappointments". By disappointment I mean even a 8-85-0 (16.5 PPR Points) is going to be considered an off week. So while there is a decent possibility Adams "only" gets us a 16-18 point output, you better believe there is plenty of ceiling potential that we see him go nuclear yet again.

Secondary Tier

A.Brown: The combo of The greatest receiving talent in the week's best game environment has me all over Brown here. I'll have my hedge lineups that feature an unexpected C.Davis and/or Humphries spike week but no where near the amount of Brown exposure I'm planning.
J.Jefferson / A.Thielen: Yup, Jefferson has now reached Thielen Status and will be side by side. This game is my favorite one to build stacks from because of the numerous ways we can go about it. We can include GB Running with MIN Passing, we can go MIN Running with GB Passing, or we can simply bet on an all-out arial attack from both sides and have an onslaught type of lineup. (5 Players from the same game). I plan to feature an even amount of these two in all MIN vs. GB Game Stacks but I'll also be featuring them as secondary stacks and 1-off pieces without issue or hesitation.

Tier 3

T.Hill: Leading off the tier of "Really Great Talent" but questionable game environments goes Ty Freak. There's no reason why Mahomes wouldn't target the one of the most dynamic players in the game at least 7+ times. There's nobody in the Jets secondary who even remotely matches up well here. Yet, my fear of KC running away with it and their propensity to share the ball all around have me scared enough where I won't ever go all in on a certain KC pass catcher.
S.Diggs: If I am betting that NEP get their act together vs. this overrated Bills D, that likely means S.Diggs should be in position to see a lot of volume and opportunities. I wish he wasn't going to be covered by last year's best CB in Gillmore, but I'm still going to bet on Diggs Talent and workload. The good news is that S.Gilmore has "fallen off" from the #1 CB to merely just a top #10 ish CB this season. Side note: If NEP are somehow successful at slowing Diggs down, that just means that Beasley and J.Brown (G.Davis if Brown is out again) are likely in position to have a BOOM week.
K.Golladay: Last week was the highest I've ever been on Golladay believe it or not. He did his thing too, so all is well. Still, I dont understand what is keeping the Lions from feeding him true #1 Alpha targets? He's been playing in only about 75% of snaps all season which whatever I can get over if that means he's being peppered whenever he's on the field, but that's not totally the case. He hasn't seen anymore than 8 targets in a single game. That 8 target game was also his only 8 target game, meaning the others have been even less. So, this is a long-winded way of saying I want to see DET commit to their stud in the making before I go all in, especially on weeks where the matchup isn't as juicy.

GPP Lower Owned Plays / Dart Throws

Players in this grouping aren't necessarily "worse" plays than Tier 3. The majority of the time you'll see players in this tier that I have projected to outscore some of the names above them. This tier should be viewed more as the "Leverage Group" because of their ownership being lower than it should.
NOTE: I almost didn't have to touch this section. Take a look back at last week's GPP Dart Group for WRs, an absurd % surpassed their projections. Just a reminder of how this tier tends to be the GPP tilting plays, one way or another.
T.Boyd: Pretty easily the best game stack piece to bring back in any TEN lineup. Oh, and the best WR to pair with Burrow on the CIN side. The only downside is his price increase, especially on DK. His teammates Higgins and Green offer better savings but it comes with a lower floor as well.
C.Kupp/R.Woods/J.Reynolds: I know, what the hell? All 3 are going to be severely low-owned compared to what they should. I mentioned above how LAR vs. MIA will be all but forgotten this slate, so here's me reminding you about their upside pieces. I wanted to mention Reynolds alongside these two studs because he's been putting up rather impressive numbers for week now at near min price and 0% ownership. All 3 of these can make awesome 1-off pieces as well, as there are plenty of outcomes where MIA lays an egg but LAR can still provide at least a couple of high scoring players.
B.Aiyuk: By default, the #1 WR in a game vs. SEA secondary. Kittle will still be the #1 Pass option, but Aiyuk is in a clear BOOM spot.
R.Higgins/J.Landry: While Landry will be the favorite to become CLE's go to WR post-Odell injury, it's Baker to R.Higgins who's put up some of the most unexpected QB-WR efficient numbers I've ever come across. Evan Silva mentioned the insane 74% completion rate on 65 targets for 705 yards and 7 TDs Higgins has put up when targeted by Mayfield. That's a 10.8 Yards per Target clip. Jesus.
M.Brown: BAL has paths to make this game a shootout rather than a slug fest. While the Eagles aren't exactly in either of the Ravens or Steelers Tier, they managed to turn both of their contests into high scoring, slate shifting explosions. While the Philly offense is in pieces, their D is actually somewhat comparable to these two teams. Now, again, overall they are probably two tiers below at their best, but the scheme and game flow is a great comp. Even if we have only a 33% shot to see a shootout here, I know who the likely suspects will be. With PIT having a lot better middle and inside coverage, their vulnerable on the outside. Enter, Mr. Brown.
T.Higgins: The 2nd most talented CIN WR. His upside remains that of GPP worthy and now we're even starting to see a stable floor that comes along with it. Great matchup that will likely see at least 2 CIN WRs perform well.. I like his chances.
D.Johnson: This has been one of the most annoying players to get right ever since he blessed us with a fantastic first week. Since then, we've been trying to ride him and his newly found rock solid floor to cash glory only to somehow lose him in 3 straight weeks to injury. His price last week was another key oversight that I dropped the ball on. I fell victim to having been burned too many times in a row to make him a major target last week.
C.Davis: Quietly, this former 1st Rd. Pick is becoming a decent player. Coming off of a 6 Receptions for 35 Yards and a TD on a team-high 10 targets, Tannehill seems to clearly trust him. Avg. 7.3 Targets through his 4 games.
C.Claypool: You just won't see me ever be lower on him than the field. Sadly, the days of near no ownership are likely past us.
D.Robinson (KC): Last week I wrote "My week might hinge a bit too much on whether or not Robinson continues seeing a 95% snap share. Oh well. Bombs away" Sigh. Of course, it took the most random variance of defensive TDs and Punt Return TDs to make Mahomes have his worst fantasy production of the year. Robinson is still in position to see a whole lot of snaps as the team's starting WR. At his price, it doesn't take much. Honestly, one Mahomes throw of 20 yards will get us there.
H.Ruggs: We saw his upside already. The talent is tremendous. And now so to is the matchup. (Wind might affect this call. His thrives on down field splash plays)

The In-Betweeners

Pieces that won't be priorities but offer plenty of upside in any Team / Game Stacks they're a part of.
A.Green: While I wouldn't like to rely on AJ reverting back to his prime week in and week out, we'll likely see at least a couple of spike weeks for the former stud.
J.Smith-Schuster: This guy man. I touted him all Week 6 and he burns me. I mention him in passing Week 7 and he reverts back to the old Juju.
T.Patrick: WR1 in an underrated game stack.
P.Williams: With Parker Out or even playing gimpy covered by J.Ramsey, P.Williams makes for an ideal 1% owned YOLO play in MIA/LAR Stacks.
MVS: Hasn't shown up lately but his price is really low for the WR2 in a Rodgers led offense.
N.Agohlor: Being an Eagles fan I just can't trust it, but he can be a stacking option if you like.
M.Jones: While his snap count and target share is in a sort of free fall, he's still capable of providing GPP Winning weeks in the right spots and outlier games.
D.Byrd: Keeps being priced down as if he's not seeing 90+% of snaps and 5+ targets on the regular. Might be only WR left standing.
A.Humphries: Not exciting, but exceeds value more than you would think.
K.Bourne: Floor is probably 0 but again, SEA secondary and he will be in position to see the 2nd most snaps of SF's WRs.

Standout WR Notes

Nothing much left to be said other than yet another reminder to CORRELATE your lineups. Try getting exposures to some Game Stacks that have paths to featuring several upside winning players.

TE Core

Primary Tier

D.Waller: He can lead the position this week without much of an issue. His ROO includes that of making someone a Millionaire. Great piece of a great game stack. Hell, even as a 1-Off he's nice.
G.Kittle: Faded him last week, but that stops here. Not only was he already the focal point of an offense, not only is he a 100% snap player, but now he gets to face the worst graded secondary in the NFL in a matchup that includes a ROO anywhere from a disappointing meh performance to Game of the Year. I'm betting it goes closer to the BOOM side. (The offense lost a lot of their target share due to injury, so his ridiculous usage is even safer now).
T.Kelce: Literally rinse and repeat from last week. I expect him to be decently owned and that's ok. He's popular for a reason. Presents the safest floor + ceiling combo of the position every week.

Secondary Tier

J.Smith: Here we go again, going back to the players who sucked the previous week. Smith seems to be practicing in full so we can drop all this Firkster crap.
M.Gesicki: What better way to protect the rookie QB than to pepper your talented TE who happens to be in a plus matchup vs. LAR. They are a good defense overall, but TE's are their Achilles.
M.Andrews: Might need to revisit this once the weekend arrives and POWN has changed, but the popular thinking would be that Andrews gets single digit OWN% after a dud game AND a tough matchup that will have the majority of our opponents skipping him over. This may be the rare chance to get a Top 3 QB + a Top 3 TE at bottom-level OWN%. Their ceiling easily makes it worth it.

GPP Lower Owned Plays / Dart Throws

CLE TEs: Both Bryant and NJoku still offer decent value and are part of an offense that just lost it's number 1 target share holder. OBJ's injury has now opened up almost 40% of End Zone targets for CLE.
H.Henry: Chalky bust of last week means you know what... Play him more than the field. Don't get crazy either. If POWN is 4%, lets leverage the overreaction to a 8% clip.
T.Burton: I'm not going to deceive you guys, I have a bit of a crush on Burton ever since he was an Eagle. Love his game and all the ways he can produce. We don't know what the TE snap share will settle between Burton, Doyle, and even MAC. That being said, I'm willing to bet that Indy saw what they have in Burton and with his still really cheap price, I'm going to be plugging in Burton more than the normal DFSer.
R.Tonyan: Likely a better play on FD for his TD role, but the price has dropped enough on DK where he makes for a nice low-owned pivot in any GB Stacks.
I.Smith Jr.: Role has been growing. Likely no high ceiling in his ROO but plenty of results that see him eclipse his projected total.
E.Ebron: Including him even though the majority of his ROO includes outputs of a 4th option (as he is now) but he's also got outcomes that see him get a 2 TD game at any given week. FD preferred.
D.Sample: Only in CIN Stacks as a pivot off their WRs.

TE Fades

T.Hockenson: He's been fine. I'm still waiting for more ceiling games to come before I ever insert him into any high dollar lineups. His game total is pushing 50+ at least, but my interest is "meh".
N.Fant: I was initially excited to playing Fant this week until I ran into some troubling data. Not only have the LAC D strangled TE production as a whole, they've done so while facing some of the teams who target their TEs at the highest levels. He can always get lucky and come away with a TD, but math tells me to take some shots elsewhere when it comes to DEN offense.
J.Graham: TD or bust every week and somehow the price has risen.
G.Olsen: Honestly it's ok as part of SEA Stacks to differentiate and save money but SF vs. TE is rather tough.

TE Standout Notes

TE is a unique situation to approach depending on the site you're playing on. On FanDuel, TEs are usually priced closer together, leaving it unnecessary to play a lesser talent compared to a similarly priced stud. Touchdowns are a lot more important on FD as well. While on DK (Full PPR), we can pay down to a value TE who can get us there on volume alone.

DST Core

Highest Raw Rating: KCC, BUF, NOS, LAR
Other Pivot Options: CHI, LAC, NEP, IND, TEN, BAL

Additional Notes

We'll also make sure to explain all the benefits our Boogie Factor brings to the table and how to use it to your advantage.

The Boogie Factor combines numerous sets of data that we prioritize for player's outlooks. We're confident with our projections heading into Week 1, but our edge is really going to start showing come a month into the season. Reason being, we're waiting to collect a month's sample size from the 2020 season to better reflect certain jumps / declines players have taken.
An example of all that goes into the Boogie Factor besides the obvious categories such as projected pass attempts, yards, and touchdowns (just for QBs) is the following:
- Expected Hurries
- Projected Blitzes
- Projected Pressure
- Moneyline Spread
- Moneyline Movement
- Expected Passing Air Conversion Ratio
Recent data is even more important for skill positions such as WR and RB. A position as volatile as WR, being able to collect Air Yards Data helps nail down other advanced metrics that better predict WR efficiency and outputs.
- Receiver Air Conversion Ratio (RACR )
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
If all that is a bit overwhelming to you, not to worry. That's why we're here and that's what the BF will help sort out.

Added Notes: Potential Game-Stacks to Target / Fade

Coming off my worst week of my DFS career, I'm going all in as far as studying every possible angle of every game. While some will be popular and for good reason, I'll be focusing more on the "secondary" options that will be more likely to be looked over.
An example, Bills vs. Pats. The low total and the recent skids of both offenses are going to cause some of the lowest ownership of the entire slate. While it's concerning that our boy J.Allen and his Bills have gone from averaging 30+ points the first month of the season to just 17 points per game since, we know the upside remains in tact. More troubling is Cam and the Pats. With literally 0 Top 24 WR & TE Week Performances since their matchup with Seattle (Week 2), we obviously shouldn't be going all in here. That being said, there is reason for hope that the Bills Top 10 Pace in 1-Score situations can force the Pats to wake up and push their tempo. As mentioned with Cam, I'm hoping we see an increase in his rushing attempts as oppose to NE simply handing it off to their rotation of backs.
Update: Sigh. Weather concerns..
Then we have those "Could Be Shootouts but Can Also Disappoint) matchups of SEA vs. SF, CLE vs. LVR, and even LAC vs. DEN.
I'm actually pretty high on SEA vs. SF generating a lot of fantasy scoring. Lets take a look at the ridiculous fantasy friendly events that are SEA games. First of all, they have produced the 2nd most plays per game (140.5). They also have the PERFECT ingredients we look for when it comes to predicting shootouts with their pass first, fast pace offense and their horrendous pass funnel defense. The cherry on top is their Run D being a Top 10 unit which all but guarantees that opponents will be looking to find ways through the air. While SF may not rank among the top in pace, or average anywhere near the amount of plays per game (124), they tend to speed things up when facing a capable opponent. SEA definitely falls under that category.
CLE vs. LVR falls closer to a 60-40% chance of surpassing expectations. My main concern is that these offenses both fall in the bottom half of the league in pace. They both are also run-first offenses. That being said, regardless of these facts, LVR games and CLE games have both managed to combine an average of 60+ points through 7 weeks. That isn't exactly a small sample. Still, there is a possibility their slower paces cause their efficient scoring to drop more than we've seen so far. At the very least, we know K.Hunt and J.Jacobs are in prime spots to succeed being in teams that handoff at Top 5 rates in 1-Score Situations.
LAC vs. DEN is actually more of a "You wouldn't think so but you be surprised". At first glance, I figured DEN offense to rank among the bottom 5 in all things scoring and pace. Surprisingly, DEN games actually rank among the top half and LAC games have seen a Top 5 rank in total plays ran. I'm assuming this matchup won't be too popular as far as game stacking is concerned, leaving us some room to gain leverage with the hidden upside we can see.
To recap: I love TEN vs. CIN, they will be my #1 targeted game in all type of contests.
Other games like DET vs. IND and NO vs. CHI offer us very little hope as far as ceiling and pace are concerned. DET's bottom 5 grade vs. the run will likely have IND committing to their usual run first ways. DET began the year with some decent pace (Top 10 throughout the first month) but have plummeted to the 20s since. As far as NO goes, they are literally dead LAST when it comes to pace whenever the game is within a score. On top of CHI's horrific 4.8 yards per play (30th), both team's defenses have been far more successful than the offenses they will be facing. CHI D ranks top 5 in Pass Rush and Pass Coverage while NO D allows the 3rd fewest "Splash Plays"(20+ yard plays). The CHI offense as it is, ranks Bottom 6 in Splash Plays themselves.
If you like this content, visit us at dailyboogie.com for additional pieces free of charge all weekend and let us know what you think!

I enjoyed writing up and seeing positive feedback from this post so I decided to write up about an interesting prop bet that came from the 2+2 poker forums that I feel went under the radar. It's way longer than I thought it would be but this story has it all: large amounts of money being bet, furious grinding, 25 buy in swings, community outrage and Doug Polk.

The Site

The modern cash game grinder may be surprised to hear that there used to be a Sharkscope style tracking website for online cash games, it was called PokerTableRatings or PTR. It tracked hands fairly accurately. Today, it doesn’t exist and has been shut down for years but it was a valuable resource for grinders and having one browser open to check out opponents was useful. PTR showed your graph and win rates at different stakes, it also had an achievement system. Some achievements were serious like ‘1 Million Dollars In Profit’ and some were less serious like ‘Check Raise 3 Times In A Hand’. One coveted achievement given by PTR was the ‘Ultimate Grinder’. This was given to the most profitable player each month at each stake, this was all tracked on the Ultimate Grinder Leaderboard. So for example: if you are the top of the leaderboard for 50NL in December 2008, you will receive the ‘Ultimate Grinder December 50nl 2008’ badge on your PTR profile.

The Bets

The year is 2010. Johnathon Duhamel has won the WSOP Main Event. Poker, especially online poker is still booming. The grinders are plentiful. The fish are more plentiful. Posts flow on 2+2 like wine.
Enter Silent_0ne. He puts out a proposition bet on BBV (Beats, Brags and Variance: a subforum of 2+2 which is the precursor to Poker’s weekly BBV thread). Back in the golden days of online poker and 2+2 it was common for large prop bets to be made on BBV. Silent_0ne’s prop bet is he will be the ultimate grinder for December 2010 at 100nl. No easy feat, the previous months' ultimate grinders had won between $12k-18k and Silent_0ne claimed to have never played more than 10 tables or ever played on Pokerstars. The odds were set at 6:1 odds in Silent’s_0ne’s favour. Jalexand42 was selected to be the escrow and judge of this prop bet, so he will be the middleman for the money and he will arbitrate any disputes. The rules were set down covered many different situations. The judge was confident of this:

Jalexand42: Just a quick note about the judging... I'm optimistic there won't be any controversy in this bet the way the rules have been defined. (#83)

He would turn out to be so wrong.
Many 2+2 posters weighed their opinions in and started to place bets:

Chicago Joey (Joey Ingram): damn that is going to be interesting for a bunch of reasons(#46)
Canoodles: If I was OP, I wouldn't take this for less than 100-1. (#18)
Chinz: Settling for 6-1 and doing it on December when lots of SNE chasers are playing really high volume... You don't seem to like money. (#218)

Nearly all the posters doubted Silent_0ne but he seemed confident and Jalexand42 started collecting money.
By the 28th November, with 3 days to go until the challenge begins the bets were placed and finalized, 14 people put up between $600-$3k. Silent_0ne stood to gain $67,500 or lose $11,250 from the bet alone. In just a few days he would put himself at the mercy of variance and would dedicate himself to destroying 100nl. If he overcomes this challenging month, he stood to win a significant amount of money.

The Play

December the first rolled in and Silent_0ne starting playing. It was a rocky start for him, he finished day two down more than $2k and received comments from 2+2 posters like:

ChicagoJoey [Joey Ingram]: lol trainwreck (#392)
MinSixBet: are you still taking action? (#399)

But some posters really believed in him and were rooting hard:

Eaglesfan1: Forget about the leaderboard and focus on your game and playing ur best. (#406)

However things got worse and Silent_one seemed to be losing hope, on day 4 he posted this:

Silent_0ne: just got owned
bad rly bad "hero call" for big pot
set of 8s < set of As
KK < AK
bad river bluff shove
set of 6s < str
10s < Js
AK < AA
AK on AK6 board < 66
AA < 99 on 974 board
^ all greater than 200 big blind pots
could have prevented half of those if I didnt suck so much (#410)

Day 5 and Silent_0ne was doing better but was down a few buy ins, still far behind his target. Remember, he needs to be number one in profit in the massive 2010 pool of 100nl Pokerstars players. He posted this astonishing hand:
Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em $0.20 Ante - 9 players

Silent_0ne: $568.55 UTG+1: $444.30 UTG+2: $519.10 MP1: $226.75 Hero (MP2): $257.70 CO: $250.00 BTN: $100.00 SB: $257.70 BB: $120.90
Pre Flop: ($3.30) Silent_0ne is MP2 with 9h9c
Silent_0ne raises to $4.80, UTG+1 raises to $18.60, 1 fold, MP1 calls $18.60, 5 folds, Silent_0ne calls $13.80
Flop: ($59.10) 2h8s5s(3 players)
Silent_0ne checks, UTG+1 bets $32, MP1 folds, Silent_0ne raises to $92, UTG+1 calls $60
Turn: ($243.10) Kc (2 players)
Silent_0ne checks, UTG+1 checks
River: ($243.10) 4s (2 players)
Silent_0ne bets $127, UTG+1 raises to $333.50 all in, Silent_0ne calls $206.50
Final Pot: $910.10
Silent_0ne shows 9h9c (a pair of Nines)
UTG+1 shows 9dJc (high card King)
Silent_0ne wins $907.10

As you can see, 2010 was truly an amazing place for online poker.
Silent_0ne was bringing out his inner grinder and was playing 16 hour sessions and seeing huge swings in the first week. Day 7 and he posted some hands that shocked the community and his growing fan base:

DPred123: wtf at those HHs. (#520)
Transa: LoLolLololooLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL (#521)

Here are two of the hands he posted:

Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em $0.20 Ante - 9 players
Pre Flop: ($3.30) MP1: $365.20 Hero (CO): $342.35 Silent_0ne is CO with 7s7d
3 folds, MP1 raises to $4, 1 fold, Silent_0ne raises to $15.50, 3 folds, MP1 raises to $41.90, Silent_0ne raises to $342.15 all in, MP1 calls $300.25
Flop: ($687.60) ThKc6s(2 players - 1 is all in)
Turn: ($687.60) Ts (2 players - 1 is all in)
River: ($687.60) 2h (2 players - 1 is all in)
Final Pot: $687.60
MP1 shows AcAh (two pair, Aces and Tens)

and:

Poker Stars $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em $0.20 Ante - 3 players
BTN: $656.85 Silent_0ne(SB): $288.00 BB: $345.00
Pre Flop: ($2.10) Silent_0ne is SB with 4d4h
BTN raises to $3, Silent_0ne raises to $12, 1 fold, BTN calls $9
Flop: ($25.60) 3h6d5s(2 players)
Silent_0ne checks, BTN bets $18, Silent_0ne raises to $275.80 all in, BTN calls $257.80
Turn: ($577.20) Js (2 players - 1 is all in)
River: ($577.20) 9c (2 players - 1 is all in)
Final Pot: $577.20
BTN shows 3d5d (two pair, Fives and Threes)
Hero Silent_0ne 4h4h (a pair of Fours)
BTN wins $576.20

Silent_0ne explained:

Silent_0ne: barely ate anything last few days. i just get up and play, dont prepare anything. im playing right now btw. down around 2700$ for the month. im really dumb for spewing off 3k+ just cause i was tilted/ran bad, and snapped. another problem that people overlook is the extra attention i get at the tables for doing this prop bet. lots of regs can exploit my plays and then all tend to focus on owning me. (#554)

Silent_0ne had started the month on a $3k downswing, then won $2.5k before going on another $3k downswing in just one week. He must have felt desperate as after an hour and a half Silent_0ne had an idea and events took a shocking turn:

Silent_0ne: any interested if i give up 100nl and start tomorrow on day 7 at 50nl to try and get the badge there for 6 to 1. i wanna gamble and break even on the month, so im willing to put up 5k on this if any1 is interested? (#570)

This new bet must have seemed too good to be true. At this point he had been relentlessly grinding 100nl for a week, was losing badly, he was tilting, was likely playing more tables than he can handle and he’s a week behind getting to the top of the 50nl leaderboard. The bets started to pour in and within an hour he had 7 people place action. The community commented:

Absurd: This is adsurd (#601)
jalexand42: Seriously, take a day to cool off. (#599)
King Fish: I'd be interested but highly advise you to reconsider this and maybe take an hour and step back. Edit: will take $1800 to your $300 assuming same judge and escrow. (#574)
loK2thabrain: I call dibs on first bet when he moves down to win the 25nl badge. (#700)

Everyone on the thread couldn’t believe what they reading, However, Silent_0ne seemed to accept that the 100nl bet was dead and he wasn’t getting the $67k prop bet win. He was willing to pay the $11k out and enter a new prop bet. Now, being the Ultimate Grinder at 50nl is his goal. Again, the bets were substantial and he had 8:1 odds in his favour for being the Ultimate Grinder for December at 50nl. The same day he made the new bet, he started at 50nl and was off.

The New Bet

Enter Fees. Fees is the 2+2 username of Ryan Fee (Currently on Team Upswing), at this point he was known for being a fearsome 2000nl grinder and writing Ryan Fee’s 6 max guide, which he distributed for free. In a world where succinct and good poker strategy was hard to come by, this was a valuable guide for many players. He takes interest in the thread on the 7th of December:

Fees i'll take all the action, PM me (#746)

Fees booked action late and the details of this booking were not listed in the thread. The next day, Fees acts a question about the rules:

Fees: what if kerpowski or jeffmet wins the ugl and he gets second? (#878)

Kerpowski and Jeffmet are players who took action against Silent_0ne. They are also 50/100nl grinders. The case of fellow grinders taking action was covered in the rules. A poster quotes the rules and informs Fees that they have to be existing 50nl/100nl grinders. Fees then asks the following question:

Fees: i think that implies at the same tables as him, but what if they just play completely different games and just win the ugl?

Remember these probing questions, they’ll become relevant later.
By the 10th of December things looked tough for Silent_0ne, the player of the top of the 50nl leaderboard was already at $2.5k profit (50 buy ins). Silent_0ne was up $1.1k and estimated he was only 2-3 days behind pace. By the 12th of December he was still playing brutally long sessions:

Silent_0ne: just finished 11 hour session, too tired to post anything, ill go to bed for a couple hours then post graphs/hands when i wake up. was tilted throughout entire session, played 12k hands...eyes burn...ran bad for once (6 buyins below ev)

He also posted eight hands that looked pretty spewy, here is one of them:

Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em $0.10 Ante - 5 players BB: $50.00 UTG: $103.40 CO: $137.65 BTN: $133.00 Silent_0ne (SB): $144.60
Pre Flop: ($1.25) Hero is SB with AdQh
1 fold, CO raises to $1.50, BTN calls $1.50, Silent_0ne calls $1.25, BB calls $1
Flop: ($6.50) 6c6d6s(4 players)
Silent_0ne checks, BB checks, CO bets $4, BTN folds, Silent_0ne raises to $14.75, BB folds, CO calls $10.75
Turn: ($36.00) 8h (2 players)
Silent_0ne bets $25.75, CO calls $25.75
River: ($87.50) 4d (2 players)
Silent_0ne bets $102.50 all in, CO calls $95.55 all in
Final Pot: $278.60
CO shows JdJc (a full house, Sixes full of Jacks)
Silent_0ne shows AdQh (three of a kind, Sixes)
CO wins $276.60

Even people taking action against him gave him advice:

King Fish: I am speechless … It's NL50. Stop trying to get so fancy. (#1038)

But then, Silent_0ne has an explosive session and is up an incredible $2800 in one day, that’s 56 buy ins! The posters go wild as he moves into 3rd place on the 50nl Ultimate Grinder leaderboard:

1. vaike $3,142, 19.38 Hands BB/100
   
2. zzn1980 $2,833, 2.46 Hands BB/100
   
3. Silent_0ne69 $2,634, 5.19 Hands B/100
   

For the first time people are starting to believe that he can do this.
Fast forward to the next day, December 13th and with another miraculous winning session he reaches number one on the leaderboard. He has $3.4k profit at 50nl and number two is close behind with $3.1k, if he can maintain his win rate of 6b/100 hands then he should have a very real chance of making an incredible comeback.
14th December. Fees posts:

Fees: still taking action, I want 2:1

Despite Silent_0ne being top of the leaderboard when he posted this and Fees already buying action Fees seemed willing to take 2:1 in Silent_0ne’s favour.
Soon after, a poster in the thread reveals that:

tightmaniac: fees is 4th

It is revealed that Fees who is normally a 2000nl player is playing 50nl HU and is 4th on the leaderboard. HU 50nl still counts towards the 50nl leaderboard. With the higher rate of hands of HU, bigger winrates of HU and Fees' skill, it could mean he would soon reach the top of the leaderboard. 10 minutes after TightManic’s post Fees lowers his odds:

Fees: Looking to take action on this at 1:1 (#1180)

The judge weighs in:

Jalexand42: If fees' didn't disclose this to whoever has his action, it's obviously pretty questionable, although that probably should have been asked. As far as the prop bet tho, I specifically asked Silent whether HU players should be included/excluded and he said included. The rules clearly don't exclude some random player from dropping down and playing $50nl (or $100nl for the original bet). They DO clearly state that people who bet against Silent one as part of the prop bet are NOT allowed to interfere with the bet, but I don't have anything to do with whatever side action fees may have on this. I told kerpowski last night that I didn't want him to play HU to try to win the badge, since I felt like it was a gray area in the intent of the rules (since he obviously doesn't normally play those stakes).
Kind of sucks for OP if this is going on, but I can't really change the rules after it's started since that would affect the people that bet against Silent. (#1196)

As of the 15 December Silent_0ne was still top of the board with $4.4k and most posters were expressing their displeasure if Fees were to continue playing 50nl. Silent_0ne drops this bombshell:

Silent_0ne: ‘2. Actions must be in accordance with the intent of having a fair prop bet. No actions (chip dumping, collusion, ghosting/coaching players on Silent_0ne's tables, etc) can be taken with the intent to affect the outcome of the prop bet. Violations will result in the violator's action being forfeited and may result in additional modification/extention to neutralize the interference.’ [Silent_0ne is quoting the rules here.] ‘The spirit of the bet is that OP is competing against players who 'really' play NL100, both ring and heads up.’
I know a friend of Fees and his friend said he was legit and everything. alittle after the bet started and action was full, fees approached me and my friend about taking additional action at 10 to 1. my friend and I took an additional 2.5k to his 25k and escrowed to wcgrider. the bet was under the assumption that the same rules as the 100nl bet were going to be used, and whatever the judge decides would be final.
so given the quotes above, it is against the rules that someone betting against me should also be able to compete against me given that he does not regularly play at 50nl (he plays 6max 2knl and WON the UGL badge last month at that stake) also, im not allowed to play 50nl HU which is really fishy and easy to win the UGL badge at if you put in enough volume.
regardless of if fees action is with Jalex or not, i think the same rules apply, because he is not a regular at the stakes and he accepted the same rules when making the bet with my friend and I going to eat something then start up a grind session, hopefully I continue to crush and run good, though my heart has sunk when I looked at fees in forth, and I feel ill and tilted (#1205)

Silent_0ne posted that he did a deal, off with main thread with 10 to 1 odds (Fees betting $25k to Silent_0ne’s $2.5k that Silent_0ne will win ultimate grinder 50nl) with Fees and that WCGRider (Doug Polk, currently of Upswing Poker and poker Youtube fame) is the escrow, not Jalexand42. Most posters now seem outraged:

King Fish: Wow what an angle shoot by Fees on this. This does help define the measure of what type of person he is that he is even attempting it. (#1207)
Tumaterminator: sickest hustle ever. (#1210)
kp1022: wait, doeboyfre$h is fees?
he sat me in 50nl HU a few days ago FWIW
after PTR'ing him , i asked why was he playing so low? he replied, "busto" (#1234)

Some of the posters were trying to play Fees at the 50nl in attempt to slow down his winning streak and tell Fees that he is breaking the rules. Silent_0ne expressed his displeasure and downed mental state:

Silent_0ne: this is horrible. im going to start my first grind right now. imo what fees is doing is against the rules and is unfair. i really hope i dont lose alot right now, but im in a pretty poor emotional state
please whoever is decent, sit it up with fees and discouarge him to continue what hes doing. 2knl player won badge last month, makes big bet against me and decides to compete for 50nl badge against me... (#1267)

For the first time in a few days Fees posts:

Fees: Hey,
Just to clear a few things up,

1. I haven't broken any rules, there isn't a rule that explicitly states that I cannot win the UGL.
2. I'm not trying to scam/do anything shady/etc, when I made the bet I posted in this thread asking if a bettor could win the UGL […] anyway I'm going to try and win the 50nl UGL this month... I haven't done anything wrong and there is nothing wrong with me going for it.

Then, an enflamed debate about the rules erupts, almost every poster is furious at Fees

Silent_0ne: had a conversation with WCGRider over the phone. the assumption was that jalex is the judge of this bet, and his word is final. WCGRider is simply just an escrow. fees and I agreed on the rules of the bet and having jalex of the judge. #1352

Then WCGRider (Doug Polk) posts for the first time:

WCGRider: Wanted to make a quick post here because i talked to colin earlier about this and i want to clear up a few things.
First off, I was never told i was going to be an escrow. I literally woke up with colins [Silent_0ne] money in my account. I was never asked anything, I was never told anything, I just was sent the money and thats it.
So now im being brought into this to make a decision, which i dont think really is fair. I haven't read any of this thread, I haven't read the rules. Also, fees has to be one of my best friends here in las vegas, and I want that to be clear before i give my opinion about this. I think its sort of unfair that i get put into this situation.

jalexand42 then posts his judgment in a lengthy post (#1526) but I believe this excerpt sums it up:

jalexand42: So, while it is not UNFAIR of fees to be playing $50nl, he has CLEARLY taken actions that will influence the outcome of the bet IF he wins the UGL for $50nl for December. Fees would clearly NOT be playing $50nl (and in fact is still playing his normal stakes) if he didn't have action on this bet. Fees also clearly understood this was a questionable area with regard to the rules based on his posts in this thread and he did not clarify it with the judge. He posts also indicate clearly that he felt he was subject to the rules. Therefore, I rule that Fees' standing on the UGL for December WILL BE IGNORED for purposes of determining this bet if he wins.

Many posters praise Jalexand42. But Jalexand42 does not have the money from the sidebet between Silent_0ne and Fees. WCGrider does. Silent_0ne gives his piece of mind and a quick poker update:

Silent_0ne: yes, i agree with this [Jalexand42's judgment].
also, fees can keep the 25k in the bet without any forfiet. im just really happy things worked out okay.
however i probably should have read this before my session I just played. probably wouldnt have spewed as much at the endodays been my worst day since the start of the 50nl bet so far. gonna play 1 more session later tonight and going to be in alot better and focused mood (#1561)

Then, another bombshell drops, a friend of WCRrider’s reveals that Fees didn’t even escrow his money to Doug:
theskillzdatklls: Afaik, Fees did not ship his $25k share to Doug, only Colin [Silent_0ne] sent his part. (#1669)
2+2 reacts:

Handbaggio: LOL wtf, fees hasn't escrowed his bet??? (#1676)
rnb0sprnkles: LOL and when I thought the drama was starting to die down, the thread gets even crazier (#1698)

Jalexand42 has a conversation with WCGRider to reach an agreement and reports:

Jalexand42: Okay, so here's the summary of my conversation with WCGRider:

1. He is only holding Silent & the_most's action, $2,500.
   
2. He did talk to Fees. Fees told him he was going to talk to Colin [Silent_0ne] today and 'hopes to work out something reasonable'.
   
3. I asked what that means, he said he didn't feel like he could tell me, because he felt like what Fees told him was as a friend, but that it sounded fair in WCGRider's opinion.
   
4. WCGRider said he thought my decision making sounded reasonable.
   
5. WCGrider said that noone told him what to do, so he figured he was just holding on to Silent's money.
   
6. I told WCGrider I was willing for him to ship me the $2.5k now if he was feeling uncomfortable, he said he'd wait to see what Silent & Fees work out. ( #1703)
   

Back to actual poker and Silent_0ne reports a bad losing session on the 16th December citing all the ongoing drama:

Silent_0ne: 22 buyin downswing im playing really bad right now, and I really wish I didn't have to think about and deal with all these other problems.

The community are rooting really hard to him at this point and are all telling him to stay strong. Things start to get messy when Jalexand42 speaks with WCGRider and Fees and in a long post ( #1957) said that WCGRider protested his participation was unfair and Jalexand42 accused him of not of not already sending the $25k to Jalexand42. Fees also tried to offer Silent_0ne a $1k buy out saying it was ‘super generous’, it was refused. Silent_0ne states that the reason fees doesn't want his money escrowed by Jalexand42 is that he is afraid that his bet will be forfeited due to breaking the rules. WCGRider chimed in to defend himself (he also spoke about playing 50nl-100nl and having a rough year, which is interesting as he developed into the top HU player for a time and couldn’t get action, even at the highest stakes.) The 2+2 community then debate and lightly harass WCGRider and Fees to concede and send the money to Jalexand42. Fees finally agrees to a 50% buyout.

The Outcome

On the 17th of December and Silent_0ne slips to number 2 on the leaderboards.

1. vaike $3,835 ,17.44BB/100
   
2. Silent_0ne69 $3,523, 4.25BB/100
   

Silent_0ne then makes a post that changes everything:

Silent_0ne : Hello everyone
firstly, I would like to say thank you so much to everyone who supported me throughout this bet. i cant stress how much it meant to me to see any post wishing me goodluck, or someone pming me given me some life lessons and more encouragement.
ive been approached by the bettors on numerous occasions regarding a buyout. the original buyout deal offered was 33%. eventually 37% was offered, and then 44%, and finally I agreed on 50% of total wagers from all 6 bettors as their buyout.
I am not really satisfied with a buyout, and I was not the one originally looking for the buyout. the bettors wanted it and I decided to see what they had to offer. what I wanted was time to spend with friends and family throughout the christmas break. With continuing this bet, I do have alot of confidence of accomplishing it, but at the expense of isolation through one of the most special times of each year. My family was mad at me when I tried explaining to them I probably wouldn't be able to particpate in any family events and have much if any celebration of christmas.
my goal the next 14 days was to just grind it out 10 hours each day with breaks inbetween, and sleep. Instead I will be able to go back to my regular, stress free grinding, and shipping 50% of the total wagers after half the month as gone by. In the end, including both the 100nl and 50nl prop bets, I made a net of roughly +20k. The other two options would be risking a net of -20k or a net of +60k. I took the variance free route, and all the bettors did the same thing. None of us wanted to lose the bet obviously, so I think we worked out a fair resolution with this buyout.
I have no hard feelings against fees or wcg rider. Perhaps a different scenerio would have occured if the recent issues did not occur, but thats in the past now and i'm looking forwards to a postive future. (#2511)

So, in the end all the parties involved reached a buyout agreement on the 50nl prop bet. Silent_0ne would stop playing the 50nl prop bet and would be up $20k. The community replies:

Ditch Digger: Silent, nice job. 50% is more than reasonable. (#2516)
kelnel: gg on +20k, u rocked!! (#2520)
shhhnake_eyes: I call this the most anticlimactic finish ever. (#2522)

Link to original thread.
Note: Please note I’ve tried to be impartial in writing this. Please let me know publicly or privately if there are any errors or you feel I misrepresented something or someone. The quotes I’ve included don’t always show the full post made but I’ve included the post number in each quote so you can read it on 2+2 in full context. If you want to be fully informed you should read the whole 2+2 thread.

1. Introduction

This franchise has been struggling quite a bit since 2008, except for the 2017 season where they rode a stout defense all the way to the AFC Championship Game. During this 12-year time span, the Jaguars have compiled a 63-129 record, which equates to a mediocre 32.8% winning percentage.
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What puzzling is the team does not seem to have a sound plan in place. From looking at their roster, there does not seem to be much hope for short-term, nor long-term success.
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2. Offensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

2.1 Quarterbacks (QBs)
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The million-dollar question is whether Gardner Minshew is a starting NFL-caliber quarterback or not.
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Minshew clearly exceeded expectations that you would normally have for a rookie sixth-round pick. He threw 21 TD passes versus just six interceptions, while racking up 3,271 passing yards and 344 more yards on the ground. His 60.6% completion rate wasn’t great, though.
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All in all, he showed nice flashes, but was inconsistent at times. He did develop a nice rapport with second-year receiver D.J. Chark.
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You can tell that the organization is not 100% sold on him. There were strong rumors that the franchise had a lot of interest in Andy Dalton when the Bengals released him. However, he signed with the Cowboys.
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The backup QB role will be settled through a battle in training camp between Joshua Dobbs and Jake Luton.
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Dobbs was acquired via a trade with the Steelers after Nick Foles went down to an injury in the season opener. He was drafted in the 4th round of the 2017 draft out of Tennessee. He has attempted 12 passes in three years.
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As for Luton, the Jags took him in the sixth round in this year’s draft. He played his college ball at Oregon State, where he mostly played the role of a game manager. He repeatedly completed short passes and he completed a very low percentage of his throws under pressure.
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2.2 Running Backs (RBs)
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Leonard Fournette was on the trading block, but the Jags weren’t able to find any suitors. His career got off to a fast start with 1,040 rushing yards, 302 receiving yards and 10 total TDs as a rookie in 2017.
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However, things didn’t go too well for him as a sophomore. His 2018 season was shortened due to an injury and he averaged a dreadful 3.3 yards per rush.
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Last year, he had season-highs in rushing yards (1,152), yards-per-rush average (4.3) and receptions (76). The only problem was that he reached the end zone on only three occasions. For the first time of his career, he stayed relatively healthy by playing 15 games.
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Fournette does not seem like a good three-down back. He is probably best suited as a power back in a committee-approach in the backfield.
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The number two runner last year was Ryquell Armstead. He was a rookie fifth-rounder who had received just 34 touches prior to the season finale. He filled in as the starting RB in Week #17, a game in which he rushed 10 times for 33 yards, while catching 5 passes for 52 yards. He finished the season with a mediocre 3.1 yards per carry average.
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I really like how the team addressed the lack of depth at the position by signing free agent Chris Thompson, who played the first seven years of his pro career with the Reskins. I really liked him early in his career, as he showed great flashes and big-play ability both as a runner and as a receiver. He was a great change-of-pace back.
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However, his production on the ground has dipped many years in a row. Take a look at his yards per carry average since 2015: 6.2, 5.2, 4.6, 4.1 and 3.7. At least his pass catching output has remained consistent, hauling in between 35 and 49 passes in each of those seasons.
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In my own humble opinion, he’s an underrated player who has a chance to revive his career. He’s 29 years old, but he has plenty of gas left in the tank considering the relatively small number of career touches. He has a good burst and nice playing experience. He will be reuniting with OC Jay Gruden who was his head coach in Washington.
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2.3 Wide Receivers (WRs)
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D.J. Chark was the go-to guy in the passing game last year. He really blossomed in his second year after catching just 14 passes as a rookie. In 2019, he posted a nice 73-1008-8 receiving line. He is pretty fast for a 6’4’’ guy. He stumbled a little bit down the stretch, but he was slowed by an ankle injury.
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Starting opposite Chark was Chris Conley. It’s unclear yet whether he can be a good No. 2 WR, but he had a good first season in Jacksonville after spending four years with the Chiefs. He set career marks in receptions (47), receiving yards (775) and 5 TD catches. His 16.5 yards per catch average was very solid.
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Conley is likely to fight with rookie Laviska Shenault for some playing time. Shenault was used in a variety of fashions with the Buffalos. Head coach Doug Marrone said he might also use him in the backfield or as the F tight end. Shenault has been plagued with injuries, so we’ll see how the team uses him if he can stay on the field.
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The starting slot receiver, Dede Westbrook, underwhelmed a little bit last year. His receiving yards and TDs regressed. His 10.0 yards per catch average was fairly disappointing as well. He is still a decent weapon, though.
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Keelan Cole’s time in the NFL could very well be running out. He burst onto the scene as a rookie undrafted free agent in 2017 with 42 catches for 748 yards and 3 TDs. Things have gone in a downward spiral since then. He reeled in just 24 grabs last year and finds himself on the outside looking in, especially after the team drafted Shenault.
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2.4 Tight Ends (TEs)
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James O’Shaughnessy led all Jags tight ends with 14 receptions, despite playing just five games. It seems fair to affirm the position underperformed in 2019.
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If you project O’Shaughnessy’s numbers into a full 16-game season, you would obtain a 45-490-6.4 receiving line, which isn’t bad. He was on pace for his best season before tearing his ACL. Can he really become a starting TE in this league, considering he has never caught more than 24 passes in any of his first five years?
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The most likely starter is Tyler Eifert, who signed a two-year contract with Jacksonville after a seven-year career that has been marred with injuries in Cincinnati. He showed great flashes, especially in 2015 where he scored 13 TDs on 52 grabs. In the following three years, he has played 14 games and he has missed 34 of them. Unreal!
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For the very first time of his career, he played all 16 bouts last year. His workload was reduced, though. He is a big question mark that could either be a boom or a bust in 2020.
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Seth DeValve and Nick O’Leary both left via free agency, but they didn’t play a big role last year anyway.
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How does second-year man Josh Olivier fit in? He was taken early in the 3rd round of the 2019 draft out of San Jose State. He only caught three passes in four games and struggled to make his mark in limited time.
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2.5 Offensive Line (OL)
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Brandon Linder is a much underrated center in this league. He does not get much publicity playing in a small market like Jacksonville, but he has done a phenomenal job at the pivot for six consecutive years for the Jags. Last year’s 75.3 PFF grade was his worst of the past four seasons, and yet he graded as the fifth-best center in the league!
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Minshew’s blindside protector is Cam Robinson. That’s not necessarily good news for the signal caller. Robinson has been among the most terrible tackles in the NFL since he was drafted in the second round of the 2017 draft.
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At the other end of the offensive line, at right tackle, the starter is Jawaan Taylor. He enjoyed a respectable rookie season by finishing 50th out of 81 tackles last year. He slid out of the first round and was a good value pick for the Jaguars during the 2019 draft.
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Left guard Andrew Norwell came out of nowhere and played great in four seasons with the Panthers as an undrafted free agent out of Ohio State. Indeed, his PFF marks during this time frame lied between 73.6 and 81.1, which is well above average. He then signed a hefty contract with the Jags, and his PFF grades dropped to 69.3 in 2018 and 65.5 last year. His pass blocking is very efficient, but he has more trouble opening holes for the running game.
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Right guard A.J. Cann is another guy whose career is going south. He showed promise in his first two seasons as a pro, but has regressed big time in the last three years. Last year, he graded out as the number 60 guard out of 81 qualifiers.
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Will Richardson is ready to step in if an offensive lineman gets hurt. He missed his entire rookie season with a knee injury and was horrendous in spot duties last year.
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2020 VS 2019 OFFENSE
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The Jags scored the 26th most points in the league last year. Can we expect an improvement in the upcoming season?
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The starters remain the same, except at tight end where the team upgraded with the acquisition of Tyler Eifert. Can the often-injured big fellow stay healthy for the second year in a row?
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The team added depth with running back Chris Thompson and rookie WR Laviska Shenault. Both could provide a boost to a suspect offense. The whole receiving corps is pretty young and likely to improve.
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The entire OL is back, which is good for continuity reasons. Some studies have shown that continuity is a key factor to an offensive line’s success. LT Cam Robinson and RG A.J. Cann are a source of concern, though.
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An offense often goes as far as his quarterback takes them. In Jacksonville, that’s a big question mark.
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Will Gardner Minshew grow in his second year? As a former sixth-round pick, that’s not a gimme. The depth at the position is worrisome as well after Nick Foles left for Chicago, leaving Joshua Dobbs and Jake Luton as the lone alternatives (unless GM Dave Caldwell signs a veteran before the season kicks off).
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On paper, I would normally tag this group as a small upgrade over 2019. However, I find it difficult to project them to finish much higher than last year’s 26th rank. If Minshew goes down, things will get even uglier (again, unless the Jags add another QB).
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Final call (2020 vs 2019): Stable
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3. Defensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

3.1 Defensive Linemen (DLs)
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Abry Jones played the most snaps on the interior of the line last year, and he wasn’t great. He graded out as the 82nd DL out of 114 qualifiers based on PFF rankings. He had a subpar season, receiving a 60.1 mark after getting over 70 in each of his previous three seasons. The undrafted alumni from the Georgia Bulldogs has spent his entire seven-year career with the Jags.
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Taven Bryan was pretty solid against the run last year. The 2018 first-rounder has only picked up three sacks in his two years as a pro, but he’s an efficient run-plugger.
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Marcell Dareus played just six games last year; he underwent core muscle surgery during the offseason. He has yet to sign with any team; Jacksonville GM Dave Caldwell is open to bringing him back if they can agree on a deal. Dareus posted 28.5 sacks in his first four seasons in the NFL compared to just nine over the last five years! He has always been a very good run-stopping force, but even this aspect of the game dipped last year. He would be playing his age-31 campaign.
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The team signed former Cardinal Rodney Gunter to a three year deal. His PFF grades have been very consistent year-over-year; he regularly finishes in the middle of the pack among all interior defenders.
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The Cards also acquired Al Woods via free agency. The 33-year-old is an above average player defending the run, but only has 4.5 sacks in 10 years. He is projected to be a rotational player in this defense.
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Another guy who is likely to be a reserve player is rookie Davon Hamilton, who was taken early in the third round last April. He will be groomed for a starting defensive tackle job in 2021. He is extremely strong, but needs to improve his burst in order to become a disruptive force in the big league.
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3.2 Defensive Ends (DEs) / Edge Rushers (ED)
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Ouch. This group took a big hit during the offseason.
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First, stud DE Calais Campbell was traded to Baltimore in return of a fifth-round pick (!!!). This was clearly a cap-clearing move since Campbell finished as the second-best edge defender in the whole league last year, based on the PFF rating system. He has averaged 8 sacks in the last 11 years, which is quite impressive. He is known for his pass rushing skills, but he was an awesome run defender. A big loss for the Jags.
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Yannick Ngakoue has demanded a trade and has been fighting publicly via Twitter with co-owner Tony Khan. No deal has been done yet. It seems unlikely he will be in a Jaguars uniform again. Ngakoue is in his prime years and has recorded 37.5 sacks in four years as a pro. Another big blow to this defense.
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Josh Allen’s rookie season was a success. He led the team with 10.5 sacks. He could improve against the running game and in coverage, though. Overall, he obtained the number 48 rank out of 107 edge defenders.
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Things weren’t as pretty for Dawuane Smoot last year. Sure, he racked up six sacks, but he graded out as the worst edge defender in the NFL. One of the main reasons was his abysmal run defense performance.
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With the 20th overall pick, the Jags selected K’Lavon Chaisson out of LSU. He’s a great pass rusher with elite burst. He still needs development due to his young age, but his raw talent is impressive. A good get for Jacksonville.
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The team also acquired Cassius Marsh, formerly of the Cardinals. Don’t hold your breath hoping he’ll be a star. This is his fifth team in seven years and he has never received very good PFF grades in his career.
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3.3 Linebackers (LBs)
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The Jaguars had a putrid linebacking corps last year, and it does not bode very well for 2020 either.
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Sure, they signed Joe Schobert away from Cleveland, who has stuffed the score sheet with at last 100 tackles in each of the past three years. He also plays all downs, but his run defense is suspect. He grades out as an average LB in the NFL.
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Myles Jack’s career is not going in the right direction. His PFF grades have deteriorated in each of the past three seasons, going from 79.2 in 2017, down to 68.1 in 2018 before plummeting to 46.1 last year. Following the signing of Schobert, he will slide to outside linebacker, a move that he is excited about. The young former second-rounder is primed for a bounce back year.
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Quincy Williams had an awful rookie season. The 2019 third-round pick was amongt the worst LBs in the league. So was his teammate Donald Payne. 31-year-old Najee Goode isn’t a viable solution either.
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Jacksonville claimed Preston Brown off waivers late last year after getting depleted by injuries at the position. He has not been good in any of his six years in the NFL, so why would it change in 2020?
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Perhaps Leon Jacobs can provide adequate play? He was taken in the 7th round of the 2018 draft, but he has surprised with strong play as a tackler in limited time. He played just 31% of the snaps last year, but we’ll see if the team gives him a heavier workload in 2020.
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3.4 Cornerbacks (CBs)
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Jacksonville made another cap-related trade by getting rid of their No. 1 corner, A.J. Bouye. He had a surprisingly bad 2019 season and he will be looking to rejuvenate his career in Denver.
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In order to compensate for the loss, the Jags took C.J. Henderson with the 8th overall pick in this year’s draft. He is at his best when shadowing the opposing team’s top receiver. He has outstanding athleticism, but his play took a step backward last year.
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A potential starter opposite Henderson is newly acquired Rashaan Melvin, formerly of the Lions. He played every down in the 13 games he played last year. He is great against the run, but struggles in coverage. Overall, he is clearly a below average corner who is joining a 6th team in seven years.
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Let’s not discard Tre Herndon too soon. He played 86% of the snaps last year and picked off three passes last year. He received equally poor PFF grades as Melvin, though.
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D.J. Hayden is the favorite to land starting slot corner duties. After five very ordinary seasons in Oakland and Detroit, he has elevated his game a lot since suiting up with the Jaguars. PFF rated him the 11th-best CB in the league last year, his second straight solid season.
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Fourth-round rookie Josiah Scott might push Hayden for the slot man job, but he is unlikely to supplant him at the moment. He could become the starter next year if Hayden leaves via free agency.
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3.5 Safeties (S)
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This is the lone position on defense where no changes were made during the offseason. Finally some stability!
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Jarrod Wilson was undrafted coming out of Michigan. His snap count increased big time last year; after playing 30 snaps in 2016, 89 snaps in 2017 and 222 snaps in 2018, he saw the field on over 1,000 snaps last season. He responded very well by grading out as the number 25 safety out of 87 players. A very nice story. He has done a nice job in coverage throughout his career.
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The other starting safety is Ronnie Harrison. The 2018 third-round pick out of Alabama received a 61.1 PFF grade as a rookie before receiving a 60.9 mark last year. That put him as the 67th-best safety. There is not much hope he will develop into an upper tier safety in this league.
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Harrison missed two games due to injuries; in those contests, Andrew Wingard stepped in to replace him, but he wasn’t very effective. The undrafted prospect out of Wyoming is more of a reserve player.
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2020 VS 2019 DEFENSE
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The linebacking corps received an upgrade after signing Joe Schobert; he will become the team’s MLB right away. The interior of the line was slightly improved by adding Al Woods and Rodney Gunter, while losing Marcell Dareus who only played six games last year anyway.
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The defense suffered a big hit with the departures of three star players: Calais Campbell, A.J. Bouye and most likely Yannick Ngakoue (although his situation is still up in the air). Drafting K’Lavon Chaisson and C.J. Henderson was smart, but you cannot ask them to fill such big shoes in their rookie season.
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At safety, Ronnie Harrison is a perennial below average player, while Jarrod Wilson did a very fine job last year. He’s an unproven guy and I’m worried he might regress significantly this season.
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For these reasons, I expect a moderate downgrade for the Jaguars defense in 2020.
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Final call (2020 vs 2019): Moderate downgrade
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4. Regular Season Wins

According to sportsbooks, the Jacksonville Jaguars are expected to win 5 games this season. Should we bet the “over” or the “under”?
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I'll answer this question via two different methods.
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4.1 Professor MJ's Prediction
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I won't go into the mathematical details, but here is a summary of my own personal pick (based on my analysis above and my estimated spreads for the Jags' 16 games):
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	Estimated Probability	Sportsbook	Odds	ROI
OVER 5 WINS	35%	Pinnacle	+154	-11.2%
UNDER 5 WINS	65%	10Bet	-115	+21.6%

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Tip: Bet UNDER 5 wins
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4.2 Based on BetOnline's Point Spreads
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Here is the methodology I used here:

• Use BetOnline.ag’s point spreads on all 256 regular season games.
• Convert those point spreads into win probabilities.
• Simulate each of the 256 games, according to those win probabilities, via the R statistical software.
• Repeat the previous step one million times (you get 1M simulated seasons).
• Count the proportion of seasons where the Jaguars won more or less than 5 games.

Here are the results:

	Estimated Probability	Sportsbook	Odds	ROI
OVER 5 WINS	38.4%	Pinnacle	+154	-2.5%
UNDER 5 WINS	61.6%	10Bet	-115	+15.2%

Tip: Bet UNDER 5 wins (18th-highest ROI out of 32 teams)
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For your information, here are BetOnline’s point spreads for the Jags’ 16 regular season games:
HOME: -1 vs CHI, -1 vs CLE, +1.5 vs DET, +3 vs HOU, +6.5 vs IND, 0 vs MIA, +6 vs PIT, +3.5 vs TEN.
ROAD: +16.5 @ BAL, +3.5 @ CIN, +11.5 @ GB, +9 @ HOU, +10.5 @ IND, +7 @ LAC, +11.5 @ MIN, +11 @ TEN.
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Note: The “Best odds” from the table above were obtained after looking at 13 well-known online sportsbooks on May 18th, 2020.
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Thanks for reading my 32 NFL team previews!
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Professor MJ